Pay prospects survey: 2009 pay rises to be worth 3.5%

Last year, employers fell slightly short of their predictions of a median 3.5% pay increase in 2008. They expect to pay 3.5% in the year ahead too, but can this level of pay awards be sustained amid falling inflation, rising unemployment and economic shocks?

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Our research
Pay prospects for 2008/09
Chart 1: Pay settlement expectations for 2008/09, compared with 2007/08
Pay expectations for 2008/09 by sector
Predictions versus reality
Pay rises forecast at 3.5%
Pay forecast by sector
Influences on pay settlements
       Business and economic factors
       Comparability factors
       Labour market factors
Pay pressures by sector
Negotiating pressures
Balance of pay pressures
Chart 2: Key negotiating pressures for 2008/09
Pay setters' use of inflation
Reward systems
Reward changes planned
Table 1: Expected pay awards in the 2008/09 pay round
Table 2: Predicted influences on the 2008/09 pay round by broad industrial sector
Table 3: Predicted key upward and downward pressures on the 2008/09 pay round
Table 4: Current and planned reward strategies
Table 5: Survey details
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