The IRS measure of pay awards - the midpoint in the range of basic pay deals fell back to 3.4% in the three months to 31 October 2007, according to our latest analysis (subscription required). This is down 0.1 percentage point on the revised headline figure for the previous rolling quarter.
The latest data would certainly appear to support the findings of our recent survey of pay prospects (subscription required) found that private sector employers expect the higher trend in pay awards seen throughout 2007 to continue in the 2007/08 pay bargaining round, with the median pay award forecast to run at 3.5%.
However, it should be noted that our analysis reflects a much smaller sample of pay awards than during the peak pay bargaining period (January to April). It is therefore possible that our headline findings will be revised as details of further settlements are collected. Nonetheless, a higher trend in pay awards is discernible:
• the headline award is set 0.4 percentage points above the 3% median recorded one year previously;
• more than three-fifths (61%) of basic pay awards are higher than one year previously; and
• an increase in the lower quartile award means the interquartile range once again stands between 3% and 4%, as it has throughout most of 2007. This is higher than the interquartile range a year ago: 2.6% to 3.5%.
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