This is among the key findings of the latest Bank of England agents' summary of business conditions report (PDF format, 435K, external website), based on interviews with around 350 private sector employers conducted by the Bank's 12 regional agents.

The latest forecast average pay award is 0.1 percentage point below that reported one year previously (PDF format, 319K, external website) (3.4%). The report notes that expected settlement levels among consumer services and construction firms are "markedly lower" than in 2007.

In contrast, the latest IRS survey of pay prospects (subscription required) found that private sector employers expect the 2007/08 pay bargaining round to see a continuation of the higher trend in pay settlements seen throughout 2007, with the median award forecast to run at 3.5%.

Our latest analysis of pay awards (subscription required) finds that settlements have maintained a strong position in the first month of the new year, holding at 3.5% over the three months to 31 January 2008. But there is evidence (subscription required) to suggest that pay deals could move in either direction from their current position.

• Has your organisation recently settled its annual pay review?

If so, please get in touch so that we can add your organisation’s pay award to the IRS database. This will feed into our review of March pay settlements, to be published on 20 March 2008. Details can be submitted online, or by e-mail.