New research (external website) from the CBI shows that the balance of sales volumes ran at -46% over the three months to August 2008, "the weakest since the survey began in 1983" (Balance figures are calculated by subtracting the percentage of firms that responded negatively when asked about how sales volumes are holding up from the percentage that responded positively).

This is in stark contrast to the unexpectedly upbeat picture painted by recent ONS figures (external website), which claimed that sales volumes rose by 0.7% over the three months to July 2008.

In light of these contradictory data on just how well the sector is performing it remains to be seen how retail pay awards fare when the latest IRS analysis of reward in the sector is published to our pay and benefits homepage (subscription required) next Friday (12 September).

Over recent years, retail pay has shown remarkable stability even as the fortunes of the sector have see-sawed. Last year, our previous annual analysis (subscription required) found that the median retail sector pay award was 3% for ther year to 31 May 2007. The median had therefore held at 3% for each year between 2003 and 2007, with the sole exception of 2006, when it fell back to 2.5%.

Here's hoping the latest IRS findings can go some way towards dispelling the current gloom.