The BCC calculates that a second successive increase of 3.8% (the level at which the national minimum wage increased in October 2008) would cost UK businesses £300 million, which it argues employers can ill afford in the current economic climate.

As we reported back in October, the battle-lines have already been drawn with regards to the level at which the Low Pay Commission (LPC) should set the 2009 increase. The British Retail Consortium called for the LPC to deliver an increase "on the lower side of average earnings" (likely to come in at around 3%). The Usdaw union took the opposite tack, calling for the pay floor to be raised to more than £6 per hour (requiring an increase of at least 4.7%).

The last two years of "cautious" national minimum wage increases (subscription required) in 2007 and 2008 have been accepted with a minimum of fuss by employers and unions. But the picture looks set to be very different in the coming year, especially if more official bodies side with the BCC's hardline stance.

• Has your organisation recently carried out an annual pay review? If so, please get in touch so that we can add your organisation's pay award to the IRS database.