Santa has therefore failed to deliver the unemployment rate forecast by outgoing Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower, who in an August 2008 interview predicted that the UK jobless total would reach two million by Christmas 2008 (external website).
However, it should be noted that Blanchflower's predictions will, in all probability, still come to pass in the new year. Unemployment figures covering the three months to December 2008 will not be published until mid-February 2009.)
Blanchflower revisited these gloomy projections (PDF format, 266K) (external website) in a recent speech, also commenting that: "The fear of unemployment has risen." This is particularly significant as we approach January, when the 2008/09 pay bargaining round will get into full swing: the widespread feeling of insecurity could well dampen employee willingness to push for higher pay increases. Blanchflower shares this view.
It will be interesting to see if it is borne out by our latest monthly analysis of whole economy pay trends for the three months to 30 November 2008, scheduled for publication to XpertHR's pay and benefits homepage (subscription required) this coming Friday (19 December 2008).
- Has your organisation recently carried out an annual pay review? If so, and if it has now been settled, please get in touch so that we can add your organisation's pay award to the IRS database.
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