At the start of this month, Mark Crail examined the early evidence of this more optimistic trend (on the website of salary survey specialists CELRE, part of the XpertHR group), noting that:

Strange though it may seem, there are now a few well-informed voices willing to say that there may be some reason to be a little more optimistic - if only to create the sort of climate in which recovery might begin. Talking the economy up, as it is known.

As April 2009 has unfolded, the number of commentators weighing in with more positive assessments of the UK economic outlook has grown. These include:

• Newly appointed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member David Miles, who, stated in an interview with the Western Mail, that "the worst of the recession may well be behind us" (external website).
• Economic think-tank the Ernst & Young ITEM club's Spring 2009 forecast (external website) finds that "the economy is no longer in free fall as markets stabilise and credit conditions ease. A recovery next Spring is now the most likely scenario."
• The CEBR (external website), in its latest London and the City Prospects report, finds that the outlook for the City is "brightening". In the CEBR's estimation, the worst of the financial crisis is now past. But with regard to the economic crisis, "whilst the pace of decline has begun to slow the recession still has some way to run".
• Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) chief executive Kevin Green sounds a cautiously optimistic note regarding the UK labour market (subscription required). According to Green: "The pace of deterioration in the jobs market is easing. [But] we anticipate that we have not yet reached the bottom."

However, we must not get too carried away. Just last week, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland sagely advised caution in interpreting signs of economic improvement (external website):

A crucial factor will be whether recent signs of stabilisation turn out to be 'green shoots' or just 'weeds'.

In some areas, things will undoubtedly continue to get worse before they get better. Tomorrow's inflation figures are widely expected to see retail prices index (RPI) inflation enter negative territory for the first time in nearly half a century. And, as well as the announcement of Budget 2009 this Wednesday (22 April 2009), will see the publication of the latest unemployment figures, which are expected to show a further sharp increase in unemployment.
 
Chancellor Alistair Darling himself acknowledges this. According to an interview with the Observer ahead of Budget 2009 (external website):

[Darling] said unemployment would keep rising "for some time". Privately Whitehall is assuming that job markets may not fully recover until 2011, amid fears that this year's school-leavers and graduates could be the main casualties.

Darling now faces a crucial balancing act in the assessment of the UK economic outlook that he will present in the Budget 2009. Writing in the Sunday Times, David Smith put Darling's dilemma succinctly:

What does Alistair Darling do this Wednesday? The economy is in deep recession and the public finances are in a mess. He has as much room for manoeuvre as an elephant in a Mini. He says he wants to be realistic with people about the problems the economy is facing but he has to make sure, in doing that, he does not drive the nation into a state of depression.

All eyes are now on Budget 2009.

• Look for our live report on Budget 2009 here on Employment Intelligence on Wednesday 22 April 2009.