According to Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee:

The 500,000 remaining low-paid losers from Brown's abolition of the 10p tax rate were not compensated in the Budget. Worse is to come for them: I hear that the long-delayed announcement on the new rate for the national minimum wage gives them only 4p an hour more, rising to just £5.77 following two bad years of falling behind inflation even in the fat times. Inequality will grow unless the minimum wage rises a bit above ­inflation every year - yes, even in the hard years.

By my rough calculations, the rumoured 4p per hour increase is equivalent to a 0.7% rise from the current national minimum wage. While this is significantly above the current rate of retail prices index (RPI) inflation (subscription required) - currently languishing in negative territory at -0.4% - it would nonetheless represent by far the lowest increase yet seen in the decade-plus history of the national minimum wage (on the Low Pay Commission (LPC) website).

The LPC was scheduled to deliver its 2009 report - in which it sets out its recommendation for the 2009/2010 national minimum wage - to the Government yesterday (Friday 1 May 2009).

The Government will then decide whether or not it will accept the LPC's recommendations, with the final announcement on the national minimum wage for 2009/2010 expected during the week beginning Monday 11 May 2009.

It remains to be seen just how much substance there will be to the rumoured 4p per hour increase.