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Unemployment rising sharply in June 2009, and will keep rising when economy recovers in 2010

Unemployment continues to soar as the 2009 recession drags on (PDF format, 330k) (external website), according to latest official data published today. And new assessments from both the CBI and the TUC suggest that unemployment will continue to rise sharply, even once economic recovery gets underway.

Today's data show the following:

  • the headline unemployment rate (on the ILO definition) rose to 7.2% over the period February to April 2009, up 0.7 percentage points on the rate for the period November 2008 to January 2009; and
  • the ILO unemployment level was 2.26 million, up 232,000 on the three months to January 2009, and up 605,000 on the same period a year ago.

The TUC warns that unemployment will continue to rise for the remainder of this year and throughout 2010 (subscription required), regardless of when economic recovery begins. TUC general secretary Brendan Barber says:

Some now say that we have a recovery, but even if this is not a false dawn, as others fear, it will be years before the thousands of people who have lost their jobs or who will lose them in months to come will see anything to celebrate.

The CIPD meanwhile warns that unemployment will rise dramatically over coming years, as the Government makes swingeing public sector job cuts (external website). CIPD chief economist John Philpott says:

The public sector has yet to feel the full impact of the recession, and the resultant bloodbath in the public finances. The CIPD's current estimate is that the fiscal squeeze implied by government plans will result in a total of 350,000 job cuts in the public sector overall between 2010/11 and 2014/15. This will be preceded by around 30,000 job cuts in local authorities in the next year.

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Michael Carty | |

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