As a new month gets underway, and with summer in full swing (subscription required), the July 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit - looks in detail at the prospects for the UK economy, and whether claims that we are seeing the "green shoots" of economic recovery might yet wither in the summer heat.
On the one hand, a mood of guarded optimism can be detected among many economic commentators. On the other, there is little question that June 2009 brought wave upon wave of disastrous economic data, which could easily result in further instability. Economic shocks in June 2009 included: pay awards collapsing to record lows; retail prices index (RPI) inflation remaining stuck in negative territory; and further rapid rises in unemployment.
Parallels can be drawn with the situation in which Gordon Brown finds himself as July 2009 dawns (Brown having had something of a mensis horribilis of his own in June, only just retaining his premiership despite waves of resignations and a crushing Euro election defeat): each could either be on the verge of full recovery, or fall prey to a resurgence of ill fortune.
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