NIESR's estimates on monthly movements in gross domestic product (GDP) suggest that output rose by 0.2% during the three months ending August 2009, representing the first positive outturn over a three-month period since May 2008. It says that this latest GDP estimate "reinforces our view that the recession ended in May of this year".
However, NIESR goes to great lengths to advise caution with regards to its estimates. It points out that while it has a strong record of making accurate GDP estimates for complete calendar quarters, these latest figures do not relate to a complete calendar quarter. It says:
Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.
NIESR is also keen to point out that even if the recession does prove to have ended, "the end of the recession should not be confused with a return to normal economic conditions".
This is a point also made by XpertHR head of salary surveys and data benchmarking services Mark Crail in the latest CELRE economic commentary:
There is a big difference between the technical end of a recession and a recovery. [...] It may take years to climb out of the trough into which the economy has fallen and to get us back to the levels of economic output we saw in 2007.
And some economic commentators now think that we could see a "double-dip recession", with recovery going into reverse and the economy relapsing back into recession.
So welcome the possible end of the recession, but don't get too carried away just yet.
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