Today's unemployment data show the following:
- The headline unemployment rate (on the ILO definition) once again rose, hitting 7.9% over the period June to August 2009, an increase of 0.3 percentage points on the rate for the three months to May 2009.
- The ILO unemployment level was 2.47 million, up 88,000 on the three months to May 2009, and up 677,000 on the same period a year ago.
The continued rise in unemployment is likely to help keep a lid on whole economy pay awards, even as the UK exits the recession. Pay awards currently stand at a record low of 1% over the three months to 31 August 2009, according to latest analysis from pay specialists at IRS.
The possible impact of unemployment on pay awards is considered in the minutes of the September 2009 meeting Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (PDF format, 91.7K) (external website). The minutes state:
It was possible that as the economy recovered wage growth would rise. But it was also possible that a high and rising rate of unemployment would keep wage growth too low to be consistent with meeting the inflation target.
IRS will report on the latest movements in pay awards - looking at developments over the three months to 30 September 2009 and also taking into account the findings of its influential annual survey of pay prospects - next Friday (23 October 2009), on XpertHR's Pay and Benefits homepage.
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