Neither the Labour party nor the Conservative party has yet published its manifesto for the 2010 general election. But statements made at their respective party conferences over recent weeks offer some pointers as to their thinking on the future course of the national minimum wage.

If Labour wins the 2010 general election, the national minimum wage will rise each year between 2010 and 2014 (external website), according to Gordon Brown in his speech to the Labour party conference in Brighton. CBI deputy director-general John Cridland criticised Brown's guarantee of national minimum wage rises over this period. Cridland said:

There is a danger of undermining [the Low Pay Commission's] standing if politicians make promises about what will happen to the minimum wage in future.

But if a new Conservative Government emerges in 2010, will we see another swing of the pendulum back towards labour market deregulation, with possible consequences for the national minimum wage?

David Cameron promised in his Conservative party conference speech that if elected, his party would "fight for the poorest" (external website). But the Conservatives have yet to weigh in with any explicit promises on their plans for the national minimum wage.

In an article in the Autumn 2009 edition of the CentrePiece journal from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), academic and CEP labour market research programme director Alan Manning looks at future prospects for the national minimum wage (PDF format, 349.5K) (external website). Manning says:

The UK's national minimum wage is here to stay. Although the Conservative party abolished the wages councils and fought the introduction of the minimum wage, they no longer propose to remove it.

Writing on XpertHR, Darren Newman considers what a new Conservative Government could mean for UK employment law (subscription required), including the national minimum wage. He notes that under the terms of the National Minimum Wage Act 1998, it would be entirely permissible for the statutory pay floor to be frozen or even reduced by an incoming Conservative Government. According to Newman:

Whether or not such a course is politically likely is a different matter, but the important point is that the change could be made without the need for primary legislation.

The future of the UK national minimum wage therefore appears assured, although its form could yet change substantially.