The UK economy remains in recession (PDF format, 159.9K) (external website), with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a second successive month in which official figures have shown the economy's stubborn refusal to return to growth.
The latest revised GDP estimates show that the UK economy grew by -0.3% in the third quarter of 2009 (up 0.1 percentage point from last month's official estimates, which put growth for the quarter at -0.4%). This means the UK economy remains mired in what is proving to be the longest recession on record (external website).
Further revisions to ONS' GDP estimates are due immediately before Christmas, on Tuesday 22 December 2009. The pre-Christmas estimates will consequently mark the last chance for Gordon Brown to fulfil his pledge - made in a podcast from 24 October 2009, which can be accessed on the Number10 website (external website) - that we would "see Britain's economy return to growth by the end of the year". That is, if the pledge is to be taken literally.
Economic analysts were shocked by the previous official estimates of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2009 - published in October 2009 - which recorded a growth rate of -0.4%, rather than the expected return to positive growth. They were consequently more cautious in making any predictions that today's revised data would mark the official end of the recession.
Over recent weeks, both the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member Andrew Sentance predicted that revisions to GDP estimates for the third quarter of 2009 would eventually signal an end to the recession (although neither specified that this would be a feature of today's release).
All eyes will now be on the pre-Christmas GDP estimates.
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