There is at least a hint of festive cheer in the current economic outlook, suggesting the possibility of a happy ending to a year that has seen more than its fair share of grim economic news. The past month has seen a number of developments to suggest that better times could be just around the corner. These include the following:

• Pay awards have shown a return to growth after plunging to zero over recent months. Although as we shall see below, this resurgence could yet prove short-lived.
• Revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the third quarter of 2009 showed that while the UK economy remains in recession, the fall in growth was marginally smaller than previously thought. And the possibility remains that further revisions could signal an end to the recession in time for Christmas.

But before seasonal high spirits go to our heads, it must be remembered that the economic situation remains severe. As Stephen Boyle, head of RBS Group Economics told the Guardian at the start of November 2009, for all the recent tentative signs that recovery might be around the corner, "the UK economy is still in the high dependency unit" (external website). 

The latest CELRE round-up also looks at the following:

• latest developments in key economic indicators as we approach the end of 2009, focusing on the findings of the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report;
• the US response to the ongoing financial crisis, and what this might suggest for what one commentator has dubbed the UK's own "zombie economy"; and
• the small matter of the Pre-Budget Report 2009.