The latest revised GDP estimates reflect a slowly improving economy. They show that the UK economy grew by -0.2% in the third quarter of 2009 (up 0.1 percentage point from last month's revised estimates, which put growth for the quarter at -0.3%, and the initial estimates - published in October 2009 - of -0.4%).
However, the outlook for the fourth-quarter GDP data - initial estimates for which are scheduled to be published next month, on Tuesday 26 January 2010 - is much more positive. According to the Times (external website):
Economists are unanimous that GDP figures for the fourth quarter, out next month, will show a return to growth.
The CBI added its voice to the chorus of commentators expecting growth to resume in the fourth quarter of 2009 in its latest quarterly economic forecast (external website), published yesterday (Monday 21 December 2009):
We still anticipate a fragile and weak recovery, with economic conditions remaining challenging going forwards, due to the absence of any strong driver of growth and the lingering impact of the financial crisis. The recession is expected to end in the fourth quarter this year, as consumer spending rises in anticipation of the forthcoming VAT rise, but GDP growth subsequently falls back as a result early next year.
It therefore remains possible that Gordon Brown's pledge - made in a podcast from 24 October 2009, which can be accessed on the Number10 website (external website) - that we would "see Britain's economy return to growth by the end of the year" will be fulfilled. Just not in time for Christmas.
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