So confident in the UK's prospects for economic recovery in 2010 is Andrew Sentance - an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - that he's coined a new phrase to describe it: "bounce-backability" (external website).
The new adjective was minted in an interview with the Guardian, in which Sentance delivered an upbeat assessment of the UK's prospects for a return to economic growth as the new year gets firmly underway.
Sentance shares the increasingly widespread view that the recession is already over. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is still stuck in negative territory for now, but initial GDP estimates for the fourth-quarter of 2009 - scheduled to be published on Tuesday 26 January 2010 - are widely expected to signal an end to the recession. Sentance's take on the prospects for GDP is particularly positive: he believes that data for the third quarter could well be revised upwards into positive territory "in the fullness of time", and that UK growth will ultimately be proven not to be "lagging behind other countries".
But Sentance was also keen to point out that his optimistic assessment of the UK's economic prospects does not necessarily mean that an end to the Bank of England's programme of quantitative easing is in immediate prospect. According to Sentance, economic recovery is likely to be "fragile and uncertain" with a return to high inflation remaining a risk. The MPC must therefore remain vigilant:
We are approaching the point where we need to hold back and wait and see how that's flowing into the recovery. [...] If the MPC comes to the decision that it doesn't want to add to the monetary stimulus it doesn't mean it is going to tighten. There could be 'wait and see' while the recovery gathers momentum.
Another positive assessment of prospects for UK economic growth comes from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which estimates that GDP grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (external website).
Looking ahead, "recovery this year will be weak at best" (external website), with GDP growth of 1% over 2010 as a whole, according to separate research from the Ernst & Young ITEM Club reported in the Times.

