The majority of votes are now in for the general election 2010, but no one party has a clear majority. The outlook remains uncertain, although a hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party appears the most likely outcome (external website). What is certain is that once the dust of the general election 2010 finally settles, the next Government (whether it be a single party Government or a coalition) will be forced to turn its attentions immediately to the pressing - and long delayed - matter of dealing with a record budget deficit (external website) which the European Commission forecasts will be worse than all other EU members (including Greece) (external website) this year. Although the resulting programme of austerity measures is unlikely to provoke anything like the scenes of rioting witnessed in Greece (external website) this week, the reaction from public sector workers looks set to be heated, with widespread strike action seemingly inevitable.
- TUC general secretary Brendan Barber warns that there are "very real risks" (external website) of public sector strike action in response to planned public spending cuts in the aftermath of the election. According to Barber: "If there are serious cuts in public spending and in vital public services, then there are very real risks of some very difficult disputes. Whoever wins the next general election will have to think very carefully before they reach for the axe and what that will mean not only for pay and living standards but for the quality of services that the public sector delivers."
- PCSU general secretary Mark Serwotka believes that public sector unions should plan for action to protect jobs (external website) now: "[W]e all know it's coming. Therefore, what would be irresponsible is to wait till it comes. So what we're calling for is the public sector unions to get together now, and start preparing the defence. Do I think that will involve industrial action? I think that it's inevitable. Do I think that industrial action has more chance of success if unions do it together? Absolutely. I think it will be a fatal mistake if each union was left to try and defend its individual sector, where the chances of them succeeding are small."
The balance of industrial relations has shifted in employers' favour as a result of the recession and ongoing high unemployment. The likelihood of public sector strike action could consequently be argued to reflect the desperate situation facing public sector workers. As economist David Blanchflower notes (external website):
At such a difficult time for the UK economy, with high and rising unemployment, low investment and limited spending, it is probably not a great idea to call a strike. Workers usually have very little bargaining power in a recession.
The CIPD's prediction at the start of 2010 that the aftermath of the recession could bring widespread unrest to UK workplaces (external website) may yet prove entirely accurate.
XpertHR of course offers extensive practical guidance for employers on dealing with unions, including the following (subscription required):
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