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Economic recovery struggles on: 0.3% GDP growth in first quarter of 2010

The first official data release on gross domestic product (GDP) to be published under the new coalition Government shows some signs of improvement, although economic growth remains weak overall. Latest revised data put estimated GDP growth for the first quarter of 2010 at 0.3% (external website).

If GDP growth were sustained at this level throughout the year, the latest revised data would be consistent with annualised GDP growth of 1.2%. During the election campaign, the Westminster blog from FT.com reported that the UK would need underlying GDP growth of 7 to 8 per cent to counteract the impact of planned public spending cuts (external website). But data for the first quarter will of course be subject to further revisions over the coming months, and GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2010 will be published in July.

Today's estimates have been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary figure of 0.2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010, which was published last month.

Recovery therefore looks to be on a marginally surer footing for now.

However, the outlook for GDP growth over the course of 2010 remains uncertain.

The Bank of England's latest quarterly Inflation Report cautions that public spending cuts have the potential to constrain GDP growth.

The Guardian's Larry Elliott argues that as cuts are imposed on the public sector, increased private sector growth will be required to take up the slack (external website). Renewed private sector growth will require a growth in exports to Europe, which in turn requires renewed growth across the Eurozone. But economic prospects for the Eurozone are also uncertain. Elliott describes the new Government's approach as "a gamble which could easily go wrong" (external website).

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Michael Carty | |

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