However, LRD researcher Lewis Emery cautions that prevailing economic circumstances mean public sector pay restraint will be tough to enforce. Emery comments:
Public sector unions are already very unhappy about plans to hold down wages. With [sharply rising] inflation, and pressure from comparisons with the private sector, it may be hard for [the Government] to keep the lid on public sector pay.
Latest reward trends data from IRS for XpertHR show that public sector pay awards continued to power ahead of those in the private sector (subscription required) over the 12 months to 31 March 2010.
But this pattern looks set to alter significantly over the coming months, as private sector pay awards stage a slow recovery in line with the UK's faltering steps toward weak economic growth. In contrast, pay freezes look set to be a major feature of the public sector pay round in April 2010. As IRS pay and benefits specialist Rachel Sharp recently noted (subscription required):
[T]he situation is set to change with the pay restraint that is already being imposed on the public sector. [...] Public sector workers outside long-term deals are now starting to feel the effects of the recession that have been evident for some time in the private sector.
The first IRS/XpertHR analysis of the crucial April pay bargaining round - covering the busiest period in the pay-setters' calendar - will be published to XpertHR's Pay and Benefits homepage (subscription required) on Friday 28 May 2010).
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