The question now is how long it might be expected to last.
Chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement saw the crucial admission that the UK budget deficit is not now expected to be eliminated until 2017, missing the previously stated target of the end of the current Parliament in 2015.
So how long might the UK’s age of austerity be expected to last?
Has ‘no alternative’ become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
The FT’s Martin Wolf takes a particularly sombre view:
The big facts are that the UK is set for a lost decade and a longer period of stringency than expected. The Government’s position is that there is no alternative. That has now become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Public sector austerity: The ‘new normal’ for the next 20 years?
Public sector austerity will be “the new normal for the next 20 years,” argues consultant Steven Toft. Toft says:
Further severe spending cuts [...] look unavoidable unless taxes rise significantly or we get a near-miraculous growth spurt in the next five years. Whoever is in office during the next decade will have to deal with this problem eventually.
Further public spending cuts more probable than tax rises
Tax rises are an ever less palatable option for the Coalition Government. Public support for tax rises to prop up public spending is in sharp decline, according to new data from the National Centre for Social Research. It finds:
[S]upport for government increasing taxes and spending more on health, education and social benefits has halved from a peak of 63% [in 2002], to just 31% [in 2011]. It’s striking that support for ‘tax and spend’ policies has reduced to a level last seen in 1983 in the aftermath of recession and continuing ‘stagflation’ in the economy.
Further public spending cuts consequently appear a much more likely option.
- XpertHR economic commentary January 2012: Welcome to ‘no-growth Britain’?
- Economic prospects for 2012: The HR bloggers weigh in This article includes more of Steven Toft’s economic expectations for 2012, alongside those of UK HR bloggers Kevin Ball, Mervyn Dinnen and Neil Morrison.