Unemployment continues to rise, while the private sector is failing to create sufficient numbers of new jobs to fill the gaps created by public sector job cuts. This is according to the first official data release of 2012 on UK employment and unemployment levels, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today (Wednesday 18 January 2012).ONS says:
The number of people in public sector employment was 5.99 million in September 2011, down 67,000 from June 2011. The number of people in private sector employment in September 2011 was 23.12 million, up 5,000 from June 2011.The overall employment rate for individuals aged 16 to 64 was 70.3% over the three months to November 2011 (a fall of 0.1 percentage point on the previous quarter's rate of 70.4%).
Interestingly, a closer analysis of the figures reveals another increase in the number of self-employed people. ONS says:
The number of employees fell by 109,000 over the quarter to reach 24.79 million. The number of self-employed people increased by 101,000 on the quarter to reach 4.12 million.Other key findings from the latest ONS data release include the following:
- The headline unemployment rate (on the ILO definition) climbed to 8.4% between September and November 2011. This represents a rise of 0.3 percentage points on the rate for the previous rolling quarter (8.1%). ONS comments: "The unemployment rate was last higher in the three months to November 1995."
- The number of unemployed people rose to 2.68 million, an increase of 118,000. ONS provides the following useful gender breakdown of unemployment levels via Twitter: "Male #unemployment 1.56m, highest since 1995. Female unemployment 1.13m, highest since 1987. Watch #ONS video"
- The number of people "working part-time because they could not find a full-time job" hit 1.31 million, which ONS says is "the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992."
- Youth unemployment once again hit a record high, rising to 22.3% over the three months to November 2011. ONS says: "The number of unemployed people aged from 16 to 24 increased by 52,000 over the quarter to reach 1.04 million; this figure includes 313,000 people in full-time education who were looking for work. The unemployment level for people aged from 16 to 24 was the highest since directly comparable records began in 1992." The Guardian provides a useful interactive map of UK youth unemployment levels by region.
- The alternative measure of youth unemployment (which excludes people in full-time education, and is favoured by the CIPD and by Iain Duncan Smith) also rose sharply. ONS says that on this measure "there were 729,000 unemployed 16 to 24 year olds in the three months to November 2011, up 8,000 from the three months to August 2011. The corresponding unemployment rate was 20.7% of the economically active population for 16 to 24 year olds not in full-time education, up 0.5 percentage points from the three months to August 2011."
XpertHR's January 2012 economic commentary notes that a majority of economic commentators expect the UK unemployment situation to get worse rather than better as 2012 progresses. These include the following:
- The BCC predicts that unemployment will hit 8.7% in Q4 2012 (2.77 million).
- The CIPD expects unemployment to hit 2.85 million by the end of 2012, and to peak at 2.9 million in the first half of 2013.
- Retail consultants CBRE predict that a "retail recession" is about to hit UK high streets, and estimates that retailers could cut up to 40,000 jobs over the next 18 months.
- The unemployment rate for 2012 as a whole will be 8.5%, according to Goldman Sachs.
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