The
rioting and senseless destruction
suffered by many UK towns and cities during August 2011 will be one of
ugliest memories of last year for many people.
With
tough economic times ongoing, how likely is it that we might see further social unrest in 2012?
-
The risk of social unrest is increasing around the world, according
to the ILO World of Work report 2011.
The ILO warns that
"the world economy is likely to create only half the jobs needed,"
resulting in a new and deeper jobs recession. Against this background,
the ILO's new social unrest index suggests that "in over 45 of the 118
countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising. This is
especially the case in advanced economies, notably the EU, the Arab
region and to a lesser extent Asia." The ILO finds that "unemployment is
most strongly associated with the estimated risks of social unrest,
along with disposable income."
- In a sobering blog post, Frances Coppola argues that
"austerity-driven recessions" across the eurozone could result in
revolution or even war.
She says: "[O]nce recession takes hold in the entire eurozone, people
will start to see that their lives and their futures are being
sacrificed on the altar of a political dream that is rapidly becoming a
nightmare - and they will take action. We are already seeing political
unrest in Greece, Spain and Portugal. As recession deepens, this unrest
will worsen and may be violently repressed - a fertile ground for actual
revolt and even war."
The UK establishment is taking the prospect of further social unrest in 2012 very seriously indeed:
-
The Foreign Office warns that instability in the eurozone could
cause dangerous unrest.
- Armed Forces planners believe economic issues arising from the
eurozone crisis pose a "strategic risk" to the UK. General Sir David
Richards said:
"I am clear that the single biggest strategic risk facing the UK today
is economic rather than military. [...] The country's main effort must be
the economy. No country can defend itself if bankrupt."
The
Treasury, meanwhile, is reportedly "considering plans to restrict the
flow of money in and out of Britain to protect the economy in the event
of a full-blown euro break-up."
The rioting and senseless destruction
suffered by many UK towns and cities during August 2011 will be one of
ugliest memories of last year for many people.
