Chancellor George Osborne has announced that he will deliver his Autumn Statement 2012 on Wednesday 5 December 2012. See What can we expect from George Osborne's Autumn Statement 2012? for details of what might be included in the Autumn Statement 2012.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes its latest report on the UK's economic and fiscal outlook - including its latest revised estimates for UK economic growth - on the same day.
HM Treasury says that the Autumn Statement 2012 "provides an update on the Government's plans for the economy based on the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. These forecasts are published alongside the Autumn Statement on 5 December."
The Chancellor's Autumn Statement replaces the previous pre-Budget report, which had been introduced by Labour.
What might we expect from Osborne's Autumn Statement 2012?
The Autumn Statement 2012 could see Osborne abandon his "golden rule" on cutting debt, the New Statesman reports. It says that "so bad is the fiscal situation, that, as the Times reports, Osborne is preparing to announce the abandonment of his golden debt rule in the Autumn Statement. The rule, which forms the second part of his "fiscal mandate" (the first relates to the structural deficit, which the Chancellor aims to eliminate over a rolling five-year period), is designed to "ensure that debt is falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16."
While such a move could endanger the UK's credit rating, the New Statesman also notes that it could also mean that "the menu of policy options [open to Osborne] expands accordingly. Indeed, a well-sourced leader in the Times suggested that the Chancellor was even considering a small stimulus."
Double-dip recession could be over in time for Autumn Statement 2012...
As XpertHR's latest monthly economic commentary reports, it is possible that the UK economy will have emerged from its current state of double-dip recession by the time of the Autumn Statement 2012.
The London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics (and also the deferred value of 2011 ticket sales for these events) are expected to boost growth in the third quarter of 2012. A Reuters poll of 60 economists suggests that GDP growth could rebound to 0.7% in Q3 2012.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes its preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2012 next month (on Thursday 25 October 2012).
...but 'triple-dip' recession threat looms
However, any boost to growth from the Olympics and Paralympics could prove to be short-lived.
The UK economy could face a "triple-dip" recession within the coming year, research from Deloitte warns.
See also:
- What can we expect from George Osborne's Autumn Statement 2012?
XpertHR reports on what might be included in the Autumn Statement 2012. - XpertHR economic commentary September 2012: Triple-dip recession in prospect?
XpertHR's economic commentary for September 2012 assesses prospects for growth and the possibility of a "triple-dip recession." We also look at the likely resurgence in trade union activity in autumn 2012, and report on latest readings on key economic indicators, including inflation, pay awards and unemployment. - The image used on this page was sourced from Wikimedia Commons.
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