Michael Carty
The CIPD is a “peddler of gloom” when it comes to economic matters, writes Jeff Randall in today’s edition of the Daily Telegraph.
The CIPD and the ‘Armageddon Alliance’
Randall argues that the CIPD is part of a so-called “Armageddon Alliance.”
He says that “many had thought [the 'Armageddon Alliance'] had expired in the late 1980s,” but which has seen something of a resurgence since the formation of the Coalition Government in 2010.
Randall defines this resurgent “Armageddon Alliance” as “a disparate and growing force, embracing academics, economists, union leaders, think-tank eggheads, politicians and, let’s not deny it, media commentators. The Alliance, in its simplest form, nurtures a culture of entitlement and grievance. It exists to demonstrate that government spending is in itself a good thing and therefore all cuts are destructive.”
‘The Chartered Institute for Personnel Development is another peddler of gloom,’ says Randall
Here’s what Randall has to say about the CIPD:
The Chartered Institute for Personnel Development is another peddler of gloom that seemed eager to forecast a jobs wipeout, but has since been reduced to scrambling for excuses by a sharp rise in business start-ups. With unbecoming disdain, it dismissed Britain’s journey towards self-reliance – more than four million people now work for themselves – as a sign that we’re turning into a nation of “odd-jobbers”. What did it expect? British Leyland to return with a mega-plant?
I’m very interested to find out XpertHR readers’ views. What do you make of Randall’s take on the CIPD?
Please do get in touch with your views. You can leave a comment via the box below, or contact me directly via Twitter, LinkedIn or Google+.
UPDATE 1 (Monday 29 October 2012): The CIPD are “hardly trots,” says Stefan Stern
The Telegraph article has already elicited a number of responses, including blog comments from Graham Frost and Niki Rosenbaum (see comments field, below), and a number of Twitter comments.
The latter include a great response from Stefan Stern, who points out that such criticisms of are misplaced, given that the CIPD are “hardly trots” (i.e. Trotskyists).
Here’s Stefan’s full tweet (reproduced by kind permission of Mr Stern himself):
UPDATE 2 (Monday 29 October 2012): John Philpott responds to Telegraph article
Former CIPD Chief Economic Advisor John Philpott has responded to the “implicit” attack on his own views set out in Randall’s article in a blog post on his The Jobs Economist blog, entitled Jobs reality less cosy than life on planet Randall.
This post is highly recommended.
Philpott says that “as someone who takes a broadly Keynesian view of macroeconomics, I have argued consistently since 2010 that the coalition’s policy of rapid severe fiscal austerity is misguided in an economy struggling to escape the trauma of the worst global post-war financial crisis.”
He works through each of the points raised in Randall’s piece, and rejects the article’s contention that he and the CIPD should be considered “peddlers of gloom.” Philpott concludes:
Although the recent jobs market data have taken many people, myself included, by surprise, on closer examination the picture they paint is one consistent with an economy that is seriously short of demand rather than, as the tenor of Mr Randall’s article suggests, on the up. ‘Part-time/odd job/pay squeezed’ Britain might well be preferable to the kind of ‘doleful Britain’ seen in earlier decades but it is just as much a sign of ongoing economic malaise. And those of us who wish to point this out rather than act as cheerleaders for a flawed fiscal policy don’t deserve to be called ‘pedlars of gloom’.
Please do spare a moment to head over to Philpott’s blog to read this superb post in full.
UPDATE 3 (Tuesday 30 October 2012): @flipchartrick weighs in on Randall’s “conspiracy rant”
Top UK HR blogger Rick has just published his take on what he describes as Randall’s “conspiracy rant”. In a very well argued piece, Rick points out that Randall himself authored articles that could be interpreted as ‘peddling gloom’ back when Gordon Brown was still Prime Minister.
Rick also takes issue with Randall’s argument that the rapid rise in self-employment levels seen over recent months is a sign of “Britain’s journey towards self-reliance.”
Rick argues that such a trend “is more likely to be a sign of Britain’s journey towards being a poorer and weaker economy.”
Rick says:
A lot of people discover the hard way that they are not very good at being self-employed. [...] Many of the newly self-employed will struggle over the coming years. Some will go back to employment but with employers cutting more jobs, they will find it difficult. Unless the private sector creates jobs to soak these people up, many of them will throw in the towel and sign on. You don’t have to be part of the ‘Armageddon Alliance’ to see that.
UPDATE 4 (Tuesday 30 October 2012): ‘Randall’s criticism of the CIPD here is misplaced.’
I’ve just posted my own perspective on the issues discussed here (please see my comment, below).
Perhaps the CIPD reflects the views of its membership? Many CIPD members would work in HR in the public sector, and this is where these opinions will come from.
A number of the public sector people who are losing their jobs are starting their own businesses, but it is too early to say how successful these will be.
Goodness me, the Telegraph has a bee in its bonnet. I’ve been encouraged by the CIPD’s measured and balanced view in recent times, and found their take on things to be far from gloomy. Realistic, yes- but never sensationalist or pessimistic. They were among the first to flag the rise in self-employment as having a big impact on the unemployment figures and have offered words of caution on Beecroft’s proposals that I now see echoed in the mainstream media. Their responses have been grounded and insightful in the face of misinformation and weighted commentary by institutions like the Telegraph! If that’s gloom, bring it on- we need more of it.
Thank you for taking the time to post these comments – your input on this one is hugely appreciated!
@Graham: You definitely have a point that a “gloomy” outlook could well be seen as an appropriate response to the prevailing economic conditions from public sector HR professionals who find themselves at the sharp end of public spending cuts. However, your comment would also appear to suggest that you agree with Randall’s contention that the CIPD itself is a “peddler of gloom.” Is this a correct interpretation of your comment? And if so, what sort of tone would you like to see the CIPD take in its pronouncements on economic trends?
@Niki: I absolutely love this point from your comment: “If that’s gloom, bring it on- we need more of it.”
In my view, Randall’s criticism of the CIPD here is misplaced.
Over recent years, the CIPD has made a few pronouncements on matters relating to the economy that could be argued to be ill-advised (its recommendation in 2010 that the Government considering banning the right to strike in essential public services and its support last year for the introduction of an alternative measure of youth unemployment to replace the internationally-recognised measure spring to mind).
But the CIPD’s perspectives (or – more accurately – those of its former Chief Economics Advisor John Philpott, as he points out in his response to Randall’s piece) on the specific labour market trends on which Randall is setting his sights here were balanced and well-argued, reflecting a close analysis of pertinent data.
The failure of unemployment to accelerate to the levels that might have been expected given the severity of the economic downturn is a very welcome one indeed.
Let us hope that this trend continues.
I think it is unfair to suggest – as the Telegraph article would appear to be doing – that the CIPD might in some way be disappointed by the lack (to date) of “a jobs wipeout” in the UK labour market.
Michael,
The CIPD could be seen as a ‘peddler of the truth as they see it. If that truth is gloomy, then the assumption that they are ‘peddlers of gloom’ could be made, I guess. Sorry if that sounds like the sort of answer that a politician would give – I am about as far away from a politician as it’s possible to be. Given that the Government (up until last week’s GDP results) have been telling us that things are going to get worse before they get better for two years now, it’s hardly fair for any one organisation to be singled out as a ‘peddler of gloom’, in my opinion
Thanks for taking the time to respond to my question, Graham.
You are spot on there – “peddler of the truth as they see it” is a much more appropriate description…although one that might not necessarily generate many column inches in the newspapers!
It appears to me that Jeff Randall may well be better suited working for one of the tabloids these days with phrases such as “think tank eggheads”, and effectively holding Ed Balls in no small part accountable for the unprecendented, economic crash within the UK! No doubt Ed’s personal actions brought about the global financial crisis too eh Jeff?!!!
Just as politicians are accused of doing, so too do journalists and policitical commentators increasingly use ‘spin’ to reinforce their personal and/or employer bias. This is a very clear example of such reporting, so much so, I felt giddy after reading it!
Thank you for the great comment, Jean, but apologies for being the indirect source of your giddiness!
I sincerely hope you feel much better very soon indeed!
Having sat on the CIPD board and led the Kent group, I would say that CIPD has always been a follower and not a leader. It has always had an ambition to lead, but has often just talked about it.
I would like to see a CIPD that did lead.