Continue reading "Job insecurity in 2010: Fear of unemployment is endemic in the UK" »
Unemployment has once again fallen back slightly, with the headline unemployment rate running at 7.8% (PDF format, 327.8K), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Continue reading "Unemployment: Headline unemployment rate falls to 7.8%" »
Continue reading "Inflation: RPI falls back to 4.8%, CPI to 3.1%" »
Continue reading "UK interest rates decision, August 2010: Rates notch up 18 months at 0.5%" »
Continue reading "Economic commentary - August 2010: A summer holiday from economic gloom? " »
The worry is that the government has no plan B for what will happen if the data come in badly, as it surely will.Exactly this question - whether or not there is a plan B for economic recovery - was put to Osborne by the House of Commons Treasury Committee earlier this month, with Osborne's answer published in its report on the June 2010 Budget (PDF format, 301.2K).
Continue reading "Economic recovery: Does George Osborne have a plan B?" »
The UK economy continued its recovery from recession in the second quarter of 2010, with the pace of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 1.1% (PDF format, 93.9K), according to latest official data released today (Friday 23 July 2010).
Continue reading "Economic recovery strengthens in Q2 2010 as GDP rises by 1.1%" »
Continue reading "Economic recovery: Are we at the start of a "third depression"?" »
Continue reading "UK interest rates: Record low of 0.5% maintained in July 2010" »
Continue reading "Inflation: Gap between pay awards and inflation narrows slightly" »
Continue reading "Unemployment: Headline unemployment rate falls back to 7.8%" »
Continue reading "Unemployment rate rises to 7.9%; inactivity hits "record high"" »
Continue reading "Inflation falls back, but remains well ahead of pay awards" »
Continue reading "Interest rates frozen at 0.5% in June 2010" »
Continue reading "Economic outlook June 2010: High stakes for the coalition Government" »
Chancellor George Osborne today (Monday 24 May 2010) announced details of some £6.2 billion worth of public spending cuts to be enacted by April 2011. Consequences of the public spending cuts include a civil service recruitment freeze for the rest of 2010/2011, a review of civil service pay for some civil servants, and £1.15 billion worth of savings on consultancy and travel costs.
Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: "Great depression II" or "death spiral" in prospect?" »
Continue reading "Economic recovery struggles on: 0.3% GDP growth in first quarter of 2010" »
The May 2010 Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 5.53MB) (external website) provides a fascinating overview of the economic situation inherited by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat. The report states that "a pick-up in UK [gross domestic product] GDP growth is likely", but cautions that a range of factors could serve to hamper growth, including planned public spending cuts.
Continue reading "Inflation races ahead of pay awards as RPI hits 5.3%" »
The first piece of bad economic news for the new Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition Government is now in: the headline unemployment rate continues to rise, while the employment rate has fallen back (PDF format, 350K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Continue reading "Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: Unemployment rises, employment falls" »
Continue reading "Interest rate held at 0.5% as political uncertainty prevails" »
Continue reading "General election 2010: Public spending cuts in prospect" »
Continue reading "General election 2010: The "sound and fury" of the economic debate" »
Continue reading "Economic outlook May 2010: The lull before another storm?" »
The CIPD has today (Monday 19 April 2010) published its assessment of the policy proposals on economic recovery and jobs set out in the general election 2010 manifestos (external website) published last week by the three main political parties: Labour; the Conservatives; and the Liberal Democrats.
Continue reading "General election 2010: CIPD weighs in on main parties' manifestos" »
Continue reading "UK economic recovery sustained in first quarter of 2010 ...just" »
Continue reading "General election 2010: Unemployment rate rises to 14-year high of 8%" »
Continue reading "RPI inflation hits 4.4% as spike continues" »
The economy is proving to be the key battleground for the 2010 general election. This is despite the fact that detailed policy promises on the critical economic issue - tackling the national debt through public spending cuts were conspicuous by their absence from the Labour and Conservative manifestos published last week (the Liberal Democrats bucked the trend by including an overview of their public spending plans). However, hard economic data could yet play a significant role in helping decide the election. As the Financial Times noted (external website) earlier this month:
With polls signalling a high chance of a hung parliament, economic newsflow during the campaign could tilt the balance.
This week is the critical week in terms of "economic newsflow" leading up to the election, as it will see the final releases for the current parliament on a range of critical indicators, including: inflation; unemployment; and economic growth.
Continue reading "General election 2010: Welcome to economic crunch week " »
The Centre for Economic Performance (based at the London School of Economics) launched the first in a series of general election policy briefings last week on its website, attempting to inject some objectivity into controversial policy debates prior to the 6 May 2010 general election which the Prime Minister is expected to call today (on the BBC website).
Continue reading "General Election 2010: policy briefings on labour market issues" »
Continue reading "General election 2010: Gordon Brown sets election date for Thursday 6 May 2010" »
Continue reading "UK interest rates notch up 14th consecutive month at 0.5% in April 2010" »
Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: The "B" word" »
Continue reading "Public spending cuts: No "flash of the blade" until after the 2010 election?" »
Continue reading "Economic outlook: Why the next decade could be a DRAG" »
Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: GDP growth struggles on for now" »
Continue reading "Economic outlook April 2010: Tough choices for the next Government" »
Continue reading "Unemployment in 2010: "It's not looking that good on the jobs front"" »
Having waded through the Budget coverage today, I'd recommend these links:
For good, clear factual briefing:
I've just been contributing to Personnel Today's live blog on the Budget - you can scroll though the comments here. I'll post a list of the key proposals once I've had a look at all the Budget documentation which you can now find on the Treasury website. In the meantime, here is the BBC's list of the main announcements.
Here are some of the key points of the Budget on the economy and labour market.
Economy
Continue reading "Budget 2010: key points on employment and the economy" »
When the Chancellor stands up at 12.30pm today to deliver his Budget speech, it will be something of a "holding operation" in the words of Deloitte's economic adviser Roger Bootle (see Deloitte's Budget briefing on their website), with some major decisions deferred until after the general election.
Even so, there are some key employment issues to look out for. During the speech, I'll be joining Personnel Today's live blogging team to digest what the Budget means for the HR community and employers in the UK. Please join me by bookmarking this page on the Personnel Today website and hear what employment experts have to say about the Chancellor's proposals.
Here are my top ten HR issues to watch out for:
Continue reading "Budget 2010: Top ten issues to watch for HR" »
With Budget 2010 just a few days away, there has been both good and bad news for the Chancellor this week.
On Wednesday, the labour market figures revealed a significant drop in unemployment and the claimant count, leading some experts to comment that unemployment may now have peaked (on the Independent website). The Centre for Economic and Social exclusion has put all the figures into easy-to-read charts on their website.
Continue reading "Countdown to Budget 2010: a week of mixed news for the Chancellor" »
The gap between retail prices index (RPI) inflation and whole economy pay awards remains wide as the current spike in RPI continues (PDF format, 204.7K) (external website), according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Continue reading "Pay awards stuck firmly behind RPI inflation in 2010" »
With less than ten days to go until the 2010 Budget, Chancellor Alistair Darling confirmed to Sky News on Sunday that there would be no comprehensive spending review until after the 2010 general election (external website).
The headline unemployment rate has fallen back to 7.8% (PDF format, 324.2K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is its first fall in more than 18 months.
Continue reading "UK unemployment rate falls to 7.8% over three months to January 2010" »
Continue reading "Budget 2010 date confirmed as Wednesday 24 March 2010" »
"The recession may have technically ended, but there is no room for complacency," (external website) according to British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) director general David Frost. Frost argues that the Budget 2010 could prove critical in helping the UK avoid a double-dip recession.
Continue reading ""No room for complacency" on economic recovery, BCC warns" »
The Budget 2010 will see decisions on public spending cuts "postponed" until after the 2010 general election (external website), according to the Sunday Times.
Continue reading "Budget 2010 to see tough decisions on public spending "postponed"?" »
Continue reading "Public sector spending cuts could scupper jobs market recovery, REC warns" »
For now at least, the UK's emergence from recession is ongoing and the economy appears to be gaining in strength - albeit very slowly indeed. Latest revised estimates published today (Friday 26 February 2010) on economic growth show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (external website). This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the original estimate of 0.1%, which was published in January 2010.
But after a slew of largely dismal economic news throughout February 2010, speculation continues to mount among economic commentators that we could see a double-dip recession.
Continue reading "Economic recovery sustained - but double-dip recession risk remains" »
Continue reading "Blasts from the past: industrial action, "oil crunch" and stagflation in store?" »
The UK economy's recovery from recession is now underway, but the outlook for growth (and for pay, jobs and unemployment) is anything but certain, according to latest analysis from XpertHR salary surveys.
Continue reading "Economic outlook March 2010: Uncertain times for pay, inflation and jobs" »
Unemployment remains high, yet the headline unemployment rate continues to surprise by refusing to budge from 7.8% (PDF format, 349.1K) (external website) for a third consecutive rolling quarter, latest official data published today reveal.
The latest quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 3.4MB) (external website) provides much for economic commentators to pick over. While the Bank of England expects the UK's return to economic growth to be sustained, a dominant theme of the report is the "uncertainty" of the overall economic outlook.
Continue reading "Inflation Report February 2010: "Slow recovery" and "uncertainty" in prospect" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has registered a third consecutive month of very strong growth (external website), with the increase in VAT serving to contribute to rising prices in January 2010, according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Continue reading "RPI inflation shows further strong growth, hitting 3.7% in January 2010" »
The unemployment rate across the 16 countries in the Eurozone has hit double figures, rising to 10% (external website), according to latest official data published today. The Eurozone therefore joins the US in what might be termed "the 10% club" when it comes to unemployment the US rate having broken the double-figure barrier in October 2009 (PDF format, 211K) (external website), and running at 10% as at December 2009).
Continue reading "Unemployment: Eurozone joins US in "the 10% club"" »
Continue reading "Interest rates on course for one year at 0.5%" »
Continue reading "After the "Enormous Depression", the "Osborne Dip"?" »
So confident in the UK's prospects for economic recovery in 2010 is Andrew Sentance - an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - that he's coined a new phrase to describe it: "bounce-backability" (external website).
With the new decade well underway, the casual observer could be forgiven for finding the economic outlook distinctly optimistic. The economy has, after all, made a belated return to economic growth, signalling an end to the longest recession on record. But there are still reasons to be cautious, as the latest monthly economic commentary article from CELRE - XpertHR's specialist salary surveys unit - explains.
Continue reading "Economic commentary - February 2010: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" »
The UK economy has finally emerged from what has proved to be the longest recession on record (PDF format, 96.6K) (external website), according to latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published today (Tuesday 26 January 2010), the BBC reports. But fears remain that recovery could prove short-lived.
Continue reading "The recession is finally over... for now at least" »
After spending most of 2009 stuck in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has shown strong growth for a second successive month (PDF format, 210.7K) (external website), according to latest official data.
Labour is planning a post-election Comprehensive Spending Review which will prove to be "the toughest we have had for 20 years", according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling (external website) published in the Times on Saturday (9 January 2010). Darling also suggested that the 2010 Budget will be held prior to the 2010 general election, leading the Times to infer that we can expect Budget 2010 in March, followed by an election on 6 May 2010.
The headline unemployment rate has held firm at 7.8% (subscription required), according to latest official unemployment data published today (Wednesday 20 January 2010).
The first interest rate decision of 2010 has now been announced by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Unsurprisingly, UK interest rates have once more been held at their record low of 0.5% (external website). The smart money is now on them remaining unchanged at this level for the remainder of this year.
Continue reading "Interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%, and unlikely to budge during 2010" »
Keeping up-to-date with movements in key economic indicators can be a time-consuming process. To make things easier, our colleagues at personneltoday.com have launched a great new resource drawing together latest data and expert commentary on key economic indicators. The personneltoday.com Indicator page is a resource of links to latest economic and labour market statistics, data and commentary for HR professionals, employment practitioners, recruiters and reward specialists.
Continue reading "Keep track of key economic indicators the easy way in 2010" »
Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 2)" »
The UK labour market has reached a turning point with the arrival of 2010, and "a sense of cautious optimism is now building, [..'] reflected in an upturn in job supplies across many sectors", according to Totajobs director John Salt, commenting on latest data from the Totaljobs Barometer (external website), published today. But this increasingly optimistic outlook is tempered by the harsh reality facing job seekers in the current climate. As Salt puts it:
[A] backlog of job seekers means that securing the next step on the career ladder has never been more competitive.
Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 1)" »
Continue reading "Recession refuses to thaw in time for Christmas 2009" »
The reactions are coming in to the Chancellor's widely trailed proposal for a one-off tax on bonuses in the banking sector. Unsurprisingly the CBI warns that the "threat of an exodus of talent is real" while the TUC describes Darling's proposal as "at the modest end of what he could have done". Bankers have "no divine right to giant bonuses every year," says TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber.
But how will the tax actually work and are there any loopholes?
Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: the small print on bankers' bonuses" »
Chancellor Alistair Darling has now concluded what was arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we provide coverage of the Pre-Budget Report 2009 speech, highlighting the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals.
After spending much of 2009 in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has risen sharply, climbing out of the red and back into the black to see out the calendar year.
The UK economy remains mired in what is proving to be the longest recession on record, with latest official estimates showing gross domestic product (GDP) growth still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009. But is there a possibility, however slim, that it could all be over in time for Christmas?
Continue reading "Could the recession be over in time for Christmas?" »
Next Wednesday (9 December 2009), Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver what is arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we take a look at what HR might expect from the Pre-Budget Report 2009.
Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: What can HR expect?" »
A return to growth for pay awards and the possibility of an imminent end to the recession are good grounds for festive cheer - but don't get too carried away, according to the December 2009 economic commentary from CELRE, XpertHR's salary survey specialists.
Continue reading "Economic outlook December 2009: 'Tis the season to be cautiously optimistic" »
The UK economy remains in recession (PDF format, 159.9K) (external website), with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a second successive month in which official figures have shown the economy's stubborn refusal to return to growth.
Continue reading "The recession is over, says Bank of England MPC external member" »
The UK economy looks set to return to growth over "the coming quarters", according to the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today. However, the Bank of England also cautions that this will not necessarily mean a return to the levels of economic output seen before the recession.
Continue reading "Inflation Report November 2009: Economic recovery is "likely"" »
The Treasury has confirmed that the Chancellor will deliver the Pre-Budget Report on Wednesday 9 December 2009. The speech will start as usual at 12:30pm.
The Pre-Budget Report is pencilled in for Wednesday 9 December, according to a tip in the Times spotted by my colleague Stephen Simpson. If correct, this is later than most commentators expected (eg see comments from accountants Deloitte).
We'll be providing coverage on the day of the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals here on Employment Intelligence.
The headline unemployment rate now stands at 7.8%, according to latest official unemployment data (PDF format, 342.6K) (external website) published today (Wednesday 11 November 2009).
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation stands at -0.8% (PDF format, 203.7K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. The headline rate of inflation therefore remains parked in negative territory for an eighth consecutive month. But there are signs that it could soon be back in the black.
UK interest rates remain frozen at their record low of 0.5% (external website), following the latest announcement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at midday today. Some economic commentators now believe that the MPC will be forced to maintain interest rates at this 315-year low for an extended period, in order to help boost the UK's weak return to economic growth.
Continue reading "Interest rates stuck at 0.5% ...and likely to remain so" »
The ongoing watch for the green shoots of economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by the publication on Friday (23 October 2009) of preliminary official data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2009, which showed a surprise fall of 0.4 percentage points (PDF format, 100K) (external website). These estimates wrong-footed economic commentators by failing to deliver the expected return to economic growth, which would have signalled the end of the current recession. The CIPD takes a particularly bleak view (external website), arguing that this development "makes the recession look more like a depression, and demolishes any prospect there was of an early improvement in the outlook for jobs and pay." But things might not be quite so bleak.
Continue reading "Why the prolonged recession doesn't have to mean depression" »
No matter who wins the 2010 general election, swingeing cuts in public spending are on the cards, with widespread public sector job cuts seemingly inevitable. The resulting rise in unemployment could deal a decisive blow to what Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott describes as the UK's current "zombie economy" (external website).
Continue reading "Public sector job cuts in 2010 could hit the UK's "zombie economy" hard" »
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