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September 1, 2010

Economic outlook, September 2010: 'Choppy' recovery, strike action and 'nuclear options'?

Economic recovery is ongoing, but faltering growth, widespread job insecurity and concerted industrial action could be just around the corner, according to XpertHR Salary Surveys' September 2010 overview of the UK economic situation for HR professionals, pay setters and employment practitioners.

Continue reading "Economic outlook, September 2010: 'Choppy' recovery, strike action and 'nuclear options'?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

August 6, 2010

Job insecurity in 2010: Fear of unemployment is endemic in the UK

Forget concerns that absence rates risk making the UK the "sick man of Europe" (as research from Bupa suggested last month). It appears there may be a greater risk of the UK becoming "the unemployed man of Europe" - at least, if data on the fear of unemployment felt by the UK populace are anything to go by.

Continue reading "Job insecurity in 2010: Fear of unemployment is endemic in the UK" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

August 11, 2010

Unemployment: Headline unemployment rate falls to 7.8%

Unemployment has once again fallen back slightly, with the headline unemployment rate running at 7.8% (PDF format, 327.8K), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

August 17, 2010

Inflation: RPI falls back to 4.8%, CPI to 3.1%

Inflation continues to fall back (PDF format, 163K), according to latest official data out today (Tuesday 17 August 2010). The gap between pay and inflation has therefore narrowed slightly, but nonetheless remains significant.

Continue reading "Inflation: RPI falls back to 4.8%, CPI to 3.1%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

August 5, 2010

UK interest rates decision, August 2010: Rates notch up 18 months at 0.5%

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that UK interest rates will once again be held 0.5%. The interest rate remains at the lowest level ever seen in the 316-year history of the Bank of England, at which it has now been parked for 18 successive months.

Continue reading "UK interest rates decision, August 2010: Rates notch up 18 months at 0.5%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

August 2, 2010

Economic commentary - August 2010: A summer holiday from economic gloom?

As we enter high summer and the holiday season gets into full swing, a wave of comparatively positive economic news has arrived, following months of seemingly relentless gloom. But how long are the good times likely to last? These are the key themes of the August 2010 economic overview for reward professionals and HR practitioners from XpertHR Salary Surveys.

Continue reading "Economic commentary - August 2010: A summer holiday from economic gloom? " »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 23, 2010

Economic recovery: Does George Osborne have a plan B?

Economist David Blanchflower recently put forward an argument that the coalition Government's package of austerity measures - as outlined in Chancellor George Osborne's emergency Budget last month - is an all-or-nothing bid to revive and restructure the economy. In Blanchflower's view:
The worry is that the government has no plan B for what will happen if the data come in badly, as it surely will.
Exactly this question - whether or not there is a plan B for economic recovery - was put to Osborne by the House of Commons Treasury Committee earlier this month, with Osborne's answer published in its report on the June 2010 Budget (PDF format, 301.2K).

Continue reading "Economic recovery: Does George Osborne have a plan B?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Economic recovery strengthens in Q2 2010 as GDP rises by 1.1%

The UK economy continued its recovery from recession in the second quarter of 2010, with the pace of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating to 1.1% (PDF format, 93.9K), according to latest official data released today (Friday 23 July 2010).

Continue reading "Economic recovery strengthens in Q2 2010 as GDP rises by 1.1%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 12, 2010

GDP growth weak but steady at 0.3%

Latest revised data on the state of the UK economy put estimated growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2010 at 0.3% (PDF format, 328.67K), according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is down from GDP growth of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Continue reading "GDP growth weak but steady at 0.3%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 5, 2010

Economic recovery: Are we at the start of a "third depression"?

The global economy is not in the first stages of a full recovery, with the recession firmly behind it; rather, we are at the start of a prolonged "third depression" (external website). This is according to economist Paul Krugman.

Continue reading "Economic recovery: Are we at the start of a "third depression"?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 8, 2010

UK interest rates: Record low of 0.5% maintained in July 2010

UK interest rates have notched up their 17th consecutive month at the record low of 0.5% (external website), following the July 2010 meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Continue reading "UK interest rates: Record low of 0.5% maintained in July 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 13, 2010

Inflation: Gap between pay awards and inflation narrows slightly

Inflation has shown another slight contraction (external website), according to latest official inflation figures released today (Tuesday 13 July 2010). The gap between pay and inflation has therefore narrowed slightly, but nonetheless remains at near-record levels.

Continue reading "Inflation: Gap between pay awards and inflation narrows slightly" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

July 14, 2010

Unemployment: Headline unemployment rate falls back to 7.8%

The headline unemployment rate has fallen back slightly (PDF format, 335.7K), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, the number of people unemployed for more than 12 months hit a 13-year high.

Continue reading "Unemployment: Headline unemployment rate falls back to 7.8%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

July 1, 2010

Economic outlook July 2010: Welcome to the age of austerity

Chancellor George Osborne's emergency Budget last week marked the formal start of the age of austerity, with significant implications for economic growth, pay awards and unemployment, according to the latest economic overview for HR professionals, employment practitioners and reward specialists from XpertHR salary surveys.
Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

June 18, 2010

Emergency Budget 2010: Follow the key points for HR on our live blog on Tuesday 22 June 2010

Chancellor George Osborne will deliver his emergency Budget at 12.30pm on Tuesday 22 June 2010. It is expected that Osborne will use the emergency Budget to sketch out the full outlines of a package of swingeing cuts to public spending, designed to tackle the deficit and enable future economic growth. You can follow the XpertHR Group's coverage of the emergency Budget's key points for HR professionals and employment practitioners as they happen, via our emergency Budget 2010 live blog, which will be hosted on personneltoday.com. Bookmark this page now, and register for an e-mail alert on the day.

Continue reading "Emergency Budget 2010: Follow the key points for HR on our live blog on Tuesday 22 June 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

June 10, 2010

Public spending cuts: Labour market "relapse" in 2011 and nearly three million unemployed in 2012 to 2015

The coalition Government's package of economic austerity measures will hit the labour market extremely hard (external website), causing it to "relapse" in 2011 and driving unemployment toward a peak rate of 2.95 million in 2012, according to latest forecasts from the CIPD.

Continue reading "Public spending cuts: Labour market "relapse" in 2011 and nearly three million unemployed in 2012 to 2015" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

June 7, 2010

Economic recovery: No prospect for "trampoline" growth in 2011/2012, says David Cameron

With Chancellor George Osborne's emergency Budget a little over a fortnight away (to be held on Tuesday 22 June 2010), Prime Minister David Cameron has begun to lay the groundwork for the coalition Government's programme of economic austerity measures. Cameron has stated that the economy cannot be expected to bounce back with "trampoline" growth and that planned public spending cuts will result in years of "pain".

Continue reading "Economic recovery: No prospect for "trampoline" growth in 2011/2012, says David Cameron" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

June 16, 2010

Unemployment rate rises to 7.9%; inactivity hits "record high"

The headline unemployment rate continues to rise, while the employment rate has fallen back, and the inactivity rate has hit a "record high" (PDF format, 347.7K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Continue reading "Unemployment rate rises to 7.9%; inactivity hits "record high"" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

June 15, 2010

Inflation falls back, but remains well ahead of pay awards

Inflation has fallen back slightly (external website), according to latest official inflation figures released today (Tuesday 15 June 2010). However, the gap between pay and inflation remains extremely wide, meaning that UK workers' purchasing power is effectively reduced.

Continue reading "Inflation falls back, but remains well ahead of pay awards" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 28, 2010

Public spending cuts 2010/2011: Osborne's initial £6.2bn cuts to knock 0.5 percentage points off GDP?

Economist and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower has warned that Chancellor George Osborne's initial £6.2 billion worth of public spending cuts - announced earlier this week, and due to be enacted by April 2011 - will knock 0.5 percentage points off UK gross domestic product (GDP) (external website).

Continue reading "Public spending cuts 2010/2011: Osborne's initial £6.2bn cuts to knock 0.5 percentage points off GDP?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

June 10, 2010

Interest rates frozen at 0.5% in June 2010

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted to maintain UK interest rates at their all-time low of 0.5% (external website) for a 16th consecutive month, following the MPC's June 2010 meeting.While the MPC's decision to hold rates at this level is unsurprising, there is growing speculation that it will be forced to make at least a nominal increase in interest rates before 2010 is out.

Continue reading "Interest rates frozen at 0.5% in June 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

June 1, 2010

Economic outlook June 2010: High stakes for the coalition Government

The economic circumstances faced by the coalition Government are challenging, with rising unemployment, weak growth and a record gap between pay and inflation. This is according to the latest overview of UK economic prospects for employment practitioners and pay setters from XpertHR salary surveys.

Continue reading "Economic outlook June 2010: High stakes for the coalition Government" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 24, 2010

Public spending cuts 2010/2011: Osborne details £6.2 billion cuts to be delivered by April 2011

Chancellor George Osborne today (Monday 24 May 2010) announced details of some £6.2 billion worth of public spending cuts to be enacted by April 2011. Consequences of the public spending cuts include a civil service recruitment freeze for the rest of 2010/2011, a review of civil service pay for some civil servants, and £1.15 billion worth of savings on consultancy and travel costs.

Continue reading "Public spending cuts 2010/2011: Osborne details £6.2 billion cuts to be delivered by April 2011" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Economic recovery in 2010: "Great depression II" or "death spiral" in prospect?

The international economic situation inherited by the new coalition Government is a precarious one. Indeed, as Chancellor George Osborne gears up to announce £6 billion of public spending cuts later today (Monday 24 May 2010), there is a downbeat mood among some economic commentators as to prospects for economic recovery. Some warn that the European financial crisis could lead to the "Great depression II", while others believe the coalition Government's policies could plunge the UK economy into a "death spiral of decline".

Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: "Great depression II" or "death spiral" in prospect?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

May 25, 2010

Economic recovery struggles on: 0.3% GDP growth in first quarter of 2010

The first official data release on gross domestic product (GDP) to be published under the new coalition Government shows some signs of improvement, although economic growth remains weak overall. Latest revised data put estimated GDP growth for the first quarter of 2010 at 0.3% (external website).

Continue reading "Economic recovery struggles on: 0.3% GDP growth in first quarter of 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 17, 2010

Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: Osborne sets date for emergency 2010 Budget

Chancellor George Osborne has announced this morning (Monday 17 May 2010) that his emergency 2010 Budget will be held on Tuesday 22 June 2010 (external website), the BBC reports.

Continue reading "Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: Osborne sets date for emergency 2010 Budget" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 12, 2010

Bank of England Inflation Report May 2010: Pick-up in economic growth "likely", but recovery "remains uncertain"

The May 2010 Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 5.53MB) (external website) provides a fascinating overview of the economic situation inherited by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat. The report states that "a pick-up in UK [gross domestic product] GDP growth is likely", but cautions that a range of factors could serve to hamper growth, including planned public spending cuts.

Continue reading "Bank of England Inflation Report May 2010: Pick-up in economic growth "likely", but recovery "remains uncertain"" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: What can we expect from economic policy?

As David Cameron moves into Number 10 Downing Street (external website), his new next-door neighbour - Chancellor George Osborne inherits an extremely challenging set of economic circumstances, along with the keys to Number 11. Although we have yet to see a clear, official statement as to the exact nature of the coalition deal hammered out between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats over the last few days, some details are starting to emerge via the press. We can use these to piece together a broad picture of the shape that economic policy under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition might take.

Continue reading "Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: What can we expect from economic policy?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 18, 2010

Inflation races ahead of pay awards as RPI hits 5.3%

The spike in retail prices index (RPI) inflation has continued for yet another month - with RPI soaring to 5.3% in April 2010 (PDF format, 222.6K) (external website), according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics. This means that the gap between inflation and the headline pay award continues to widen while economic recovery remains weak.

Continue reading "Inflation races ahead of pay awards as RPI hits 5.3%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 12, 2010

Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: Unemployment rises, employment falls

The first piece of bad economic news for the new Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition Government is now in: the headline unemployment rate continues to rise, while the employment rate has fallen back (PDF format, 350K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Continue reading "Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition: Unemployment rises, employment falls" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 10, 2010

Interest rate held at 0.5% as political uncertainty prevails

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted to hold UK interest rates at their all-time low of 0.5% (external website) for a 15th consecutive month, following the MPC's May 2010 meeting. This is entirely unsurprising given the ongoing political uncertainty (external website) following the results of the 2010 general election. But leaked comments from Bank of England governor Mervyn King suggest that we are unlikely to say much change in rates for an extended period.

Continue reading "Interest rate held at 0.5% as political uncertainty prevails" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 5, 2010

General election 2010: Public spending cuts in prospect

The economy quickly and rightly emerged as the central issue of the general election 2010 campaign, yet detailed policy promises from Labour and the Conservatives on the toughest economic decisions - including how to tackle the national debt through public spending cuts - have been conspicuous by their absence. Yet despite their best efforts, some limited detail on the potential scale of their plans for post-election public spending cuts has crept out over the course of the campaign.

Continue reading "General election 2010: Public spending cuts in prospect" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 30, 2010

General election 2010: The "sound and fury" of the economic debate

The economy - and what is to be done to enable ongoing recovery while tackling the UK's record £163.4 billion budget deficit (external website) - has rightly emerged as the key issue in the election campaign, and has been hotly debated. But here the phrase "sound and fury signifying nothing" would appear relevant. Last night's third televised prime ministerial debate (external website) was a case in point: little more in the way of detailed economic promises emerged, despite its ostensible focus on the economy.

Continue reading "General election 2010: The "sound and fury" of the economic debate" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

May 4, 2010

Economic outlook May 2010: The lull before another storm?

Economic recovery struggles on, but conditions are volatile as the election approaches: weak growth, public spending cuts and possible public sector strike action await the next Government. This is according to the latest overview of UK economic prospects for employment practitioners and pay setters from XpertHR salary surveys.

Continue reading "Economic outlook May 2010: The lull before another storm?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 19, 2010

General election 2010: CIPD weighs in on main parties' manifestos

The CIPD has today (Monday 19 April 2010) published its assessment of the policy proposals on economic recovery and jobs set out in the general election 2010 manifestos (external website) published last week by the three main political parties: Labour; the Conservatives; and the Liberal Democrats.

Continue reading "General election 2010: CIPD weighs in on main parties' manifestos" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 23, 2010

UK economic recovery sustained in first quarter of 2010 ...just

The UK's emergence from the 2008/2009 recession appears to be on a very slightly surer footing for now, following the publication today (Friday 23 April 2010) of latest official estimates on economic growth (PDF format, 170.4K) (external website). These show that the economy failed to dip back into negative growth, although the rate of growth achieved was by no means spectacular. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2010 when compared with the previous quarter.

Continue reading "UK economic recovery sustained in first quarter of 2010 ...just" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 21, 2010

General election 2010: Unemployment rate rises to 14-year high of 8%

The headline unemployment rate has risen to 8.0% (PDF format, 314.6K) (external website) - its highest level in nearly 14 years, according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the final unemployment data release prior to the 2010 general election, and therefore may not represent welcome news for Gordon Brown.

Continue reading "General election 2010: Unemployment rate rises to 14-year high of 8%" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 20, 2010

RPI inflation hits 4.4% as spike continues

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has shown yet another sharp rise (PDF format, 209.9K) (external website) - taking it to 4.4% in March 2010, according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The gap between pay and inflation is therefore also widening ever further as inflation while pay awards remain subdued.

Continue reading "RPI inflation hits 4.4% as spike continues" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 19, 2010

General election 2010: Welcome to economic crunch week

The economy is proving to be the key battleground for the 2010 general election. This is despite the fact that detailed policy promises on the critical economic issue - tackling the national debt through public spending cuts  were conspicuous by their absence from the Labour and Conservative manifestos published last week (the Liberal Democrats bucked the trend by including an overview of their public spending plans). However, hard economic data could yet play a significant role in helping decide the election. As the Financial Times noted (external website) earlier this month:

With polls signalling a high chance of a hung parliament, economic newsflow during the campaign could tilt the balance.

This week is the critical week in terms of "economic newsflow" leading up to the election, as it will see the final releases for the current parliament on a range of critical indicators, including: inflation; unemployment; and economic growth.

Continue reading "General election 2010: Welcome to economic crunch week " »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 6, 2010

General Election 2010: policy briefings on labour market issues

The Centre for Economic Performance (based at the London School of Economics) launched the first in a series of general election policy briefings last week on its website, attempting to inject some objectivity into controversial policy debates prior to the 6 May 2010 general election which the Prime Minister is expected to call today (on the BBC website).

Continue reading "General Election 2010: policy briefings on labour market issues" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

General election 2010: Gordon Brown sets election date for Thursday 6 May 2010

The 2010 general election campaign is at last officially underway. To no-one's great surprise, Gordon Brown visited Buckingham Palace today (Tuesday 6 April 2010) in order to call for Parliament to be dissolved, thereby enabling him to call the general election, which will take place on Thursday 6 May 2010 (external website).

Continue reading "General election 2010: Gordon Brown sets election date for Thursday 6 May 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 8, 2010

UK interest rates notch up 14th consecutive month at 0.5% in April 2010

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced that interest rates will remain at the current all-time low of 0.5% (external website), following the MPC's April 2010 meeting. Last month's Budget 2010 suggests that interest rates could well remain at this level for some time to come.

Continue reading "UK interest rates notch up 14th consecutive month at 0.5% in April 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

March 30, 2010

Economic recovery in 2010: The "B" word

Latest official estimates on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2009 due out later today will provide a clear indicator as to the strength or otherwise of the UK's return to economic growth following the recession. But what of growth in 2010? Over recent weeks, economic commentators and policymakers have been making increasing use of what we might term the "B" word to describe the UK's prospects for economic recovery.

Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: The "B" word" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 31, 2010

Public spending cuts: No "flash of the blade" until after the 2010 election?

Arguably the most keenly-watched topic addressed by last week's Budget 2010 was that of tackling the UK's budget deficit, which Chancellor Alistair Darling said is expected to come in at £167 billion for the current financial year (lower than the £178 billion forecast in the Pre-Budget Report 2009). This is where the toughest choices will have to be taken, with potential implications for pay awards, unemployment and the UK's nascent economic recovery. But it is also the area on which both Labour and the Conservatives seem most hesitant to set out their respective stalls

Continue reading "Public spending cuts: No "flash of the blade" until after the 2010 election?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0) |

April 6, 2010

Economic outlook: Why the next decade could be a DRAG

The economic outlook for the coming decade as a whole could prove a "DRAG" (external website), with little prospect of a return to pre-recession growth levels for the time being, and the spectre remaining of another collapse into recession or worse, according to Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott.

Continue reading "Economic outlook: Why the next decade could be a DRAG" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 30, 2010

Economic recovery in 2010: GDP growth struggles on for now

The economic recovery is ongoing, but growth remains comparatively feeble. Latest revised economic growth estimates - published today (Tuesday 30 March 2010) in the Quarterly National Accounts (PDF format, 236.8K) (external website) - show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009. This compares with the estimate for the previous quarter (the third quarter of 2009) of -0.3%.

Continue reading "Economic recovery in 2010: GDP growth struggles on for now" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

April 1, 2010

Economic outlook April 2010: Tough choices for the next Government

Weak economic growth, high unemployment, soaring inflation and increased industrial action mean the storm clouds are gathering for whichever party wins the imminent general election. This is according to latest analysis of the economic outlook and what it means for employment practitioners and pay setters from XpertHR Salary Surveys.

Continue reading "Economic outlook April 2010: Tough choices for the next Government" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 29, 2010

Unemployment in 2010: "It's not looking that good on the jobs front"

Unemployment could be argued to have represented a "dog that did not bark" (external website) during the recession - if we focus on the headline rate of unemployment, that is. But the headline data mask a more complex and potentially troubling story.

Continue reading "Unemployment in 2010: "It's not looking that good on the jobs front"" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 25, 2010

Budget 2010: interesting links

Having waded through the Budget coverage today, I'd recommend these links:

For good, clear factual briefing:

Continue reading "Budget 2010: interesting links" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 24, 2010

Budget 2010: comments from HR

I've just been contributing to Personnel Today's live blog on the Budget - you can scroll though the comments here. I'll post a list of the key proposals once I've had a look at all the Budget documentation which you can now find on the Treasury website. In the meantime, here is the BBC's list of the main announcements.

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Budget 2010: key points on employment and the economy

Here are some of the key points of the Budget on the economy and labour market.

Economy

  • The Chancellor stuck to his forecast that the economy would grow by between 1% and 1.5% over 2010. He slightly revised downwards his growth forecast for 2011 from 3.5% to 3%-3.5%, keeping the forecast for 2012 unchanged at 3.5%.

Continue reading "Budget 2010: key points on employment and the economy" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Budget 2010: Top ten issues to watch for HR

When the Chancellor stands up at 12.30pm today to deliver his Budget speech, it will be something of a "holding operation" in the words of Deloitte's economic adviser Roger Bootle (see Deloitte's Budget briefing on their website), with some major decisions deferred until after the general election.

Even so, there are some key employment issues to look out for. During the speech, I'll be joining Personnel Today's live blogging team to digest what the Budget means for the HR community and employers in the UK. Please join me by bookmarking this page on the Personnel Today website and hear what employment experts have to say about the Chancellor's proposals.

Here are my top ten HR issues to watch out for:

Continue reading "Budget 2010: Top ten issues to watch for HR" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 19, 2010

Countdown to Budget 2010: a week of mixed news for the Chancellor

With Budget 2010 just a few days away, there has been both good and bad news for the Chancellor this week.

On Wednesday, the labour market figures revealed a significant drop in unemployment and the claimant count, leading some experts to comment that unemployment may now have peaked (on the Independent website). The Centre for Economic and Social exclusion has put all the figures into easy-to-read charts on their website.

Continue reading "Countdown to Budget 2010: a week of mixed news for the Chancellor" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 23, 2010

Pay awards stuck firmly behind RPI inflation in 2010

The gap between retail prices index (RPI) inflation and whole economy pay awards remains wide as the current spike in RPI continues (PDF format, 204.7K) (external website), according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Continue reading "Pay awards stuck firmly behind RPI inflation in 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 15, 2010

Budget 2010: Little room for manoeuvre

With less than ten days to go until the 2010 Budget, Chancellor Alistair Darling confirmed to Sky News on Sunday that there would be no comprehensive spending review until after the 2010 general election (external website).

Continue reading "Budget 2010: Little room for manoeuvre" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 17, 2010

UK unemployment rate falls to 7.8% over three months to January 2010

The headline unemployment rate has fallen back to 7.8% (PDF format, 324.2K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is its first fall in more than 18 months.

Continue reading "UK unemployment rate falls to 7.8% over three months to January 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 10, 2010

Budget 2010 date confirmed as Wednesday 24 March 2010

Gordon Brown has confirmed the date on which Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver the Budget 2010 as Wednesday 24 March 2010 (external website). This has fuelled media speculation that the 2010 general election will follow a little over six weeks later, on Thursday 6 May 2010.

Continue reading "Budget 2010 date confirmed as Wednesday 24 March 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 9, 2010

"No room for complacency" on economic recovery, BCC warns

"The recession may have technically ended, but there is no room for complacency," (external website) according to British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) director general David Frost. Frost argues that the Budget 2010 could prove critical in helping the UK avoid a double-dip recession.

Continue reading ""No room for complacency" on economic recovery, BCC warns" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 8, 2010

Budget 2010 to see tough decisions on public spending "postponed"?

The Budget 2010 will see decisions on public spending cuts "postponed" until after the 2010 general election (external website), according to the Sunday Times.

Continue reading "Budget 2010 to see tough decisions on public spending "postponed"?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

March 4, 2010

Public sector spending cuts could scupper jobs market recovery, REC warns

The UK jobs market is showing signs of recovery from the pounding it took during the recession, but post-election public spending cuts could harm its prospects (external website). This according to latest monthly research from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) and consultants KPMG.

Continue reading "Public sector spending cuts could scupper jobs market recovery, REC warns" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 26, 2010

Economic recovery sustained - but double-dip recession risk remains

For now at least, the UK's emergence from recession is ongoing and the economy appears to be gaining in strength - albeit very slowly indeed. Latest revised estimates published today (Friday 26 February 2010) on economic growth show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (external website). This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the original estimate of 0.1%, which was published in January 2010.

But after a slew of largely dismal economic news throughout February 2010, speculation continues to mount among economic commentators that we could see a double-dip recession.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 2, 2010

Blasts from the past: industrial action, "oil crunch" and stagflation in store?

As we approach the end of winter 2010, could we see some of the most testing conditions of the 1970s returning to plague both the economy and UK employers during the coming decade?

Continue reading "Blasts from the past: industrial action, "oil crunch" and stagflation in store?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

March 1, 2010

Economic outlook March 2010: Uncertain times for pay, inflation and jobs

The UK economy's recovery from recession is now underway, but the outlook for growth (and for pay, jobs and unemployment) is anything but certain, according to latest analysis from XpertHR salary surveys.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 15, 2010

Budget 2010 confirmed for March

Chancellor Alistair Darling has confirmed that the Budget 2010 will take place during March (external website), although the exact date has not yet been announced.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 17, 2010

Unemployment rate holds firm at 7.8%

Unemployment remains high, yet the headline unemployment rate continues to surprise by refusing to budge from 7.8% (PDF format, 349.1K) (external website) for a third consecutive rolling quarter, latest official data published today reveal.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 10, 2010

Inflation Report February 2010: "Slow recovery" and "uncertainty" in prospect

The latest quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 3.4MB) (external website) provides much for economic commentators to pick over. While the Bank of England expects the UK's return to economic growth to be sustained, a dominant theme of the report is the "uncertainty" of the overall economic outlook.

Continue reading "Inflation Report February 2010: "Slow recovery" and "uncertainty" in prospect" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 16, 2010

RPI inflation shows further strong growth, hitting 3.7% in January 2010

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has registered a third consecutive month of very strong growth (external website), with the increase in VAT serving to contribute to rising prices in January 2010, according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Continue reading "RPI inflation shows further strong growth, hitting 3.7% in January 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 29, 2010

Unemployment: Eurozone joins US in "the 10% club"

The unemployment rate across the 16 countries in the Eurozone has hit double figures, rising to 10% (external website), according to latest official data published today. The Eurozone therefore joins the US in what might be termed "the 10% club" when it comes to unemployment the US rate having broken the double-figure barrier in October 2009 (PDF format, 211K) (external website), and running at 10% as at December 2009).

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 4, 2010

Interest rates on course for one year at 0.5%

UK interest rates are now just one month shy of notching up a whole calendar year at the current all-time low rate of 0.5%. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced that interest rates will once again be held at 0.5%, following the February 2010 MPC meeting.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 22, 2010

After the "Enormous Depression", the "Osborne Dip"?

A quick spot of Friday afternoon food for thought: In his latest column for the New Statesman, economist and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member David Blanchflower coins two interesting new phrases with which to conjure: the "Enormous Depression" and the "Osborne Dip" (external website).

Continue reading "After the "Enormous Depression", the "Osborne Dip"?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 18, 2010

UK economy has "bounce-backability"

So confident in the UK's prospects for economic recovery in 2010 is Andrew Sentance - an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - that he's coined a new phrase to describe it: "bounce-backability" (external website).

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

February 1, 2010

Economic commentary - February 2010: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

With the new decade well underway, the casual observer could be forgiven for finding the economic outlook distinctly optimistic. The economy has, after all, made a belated return to economic growth, signalling an end to the longest recession on record.  But there are still reasons to be cautious, as the latest monthly economic commentary article from CELRE - XpertHR's specialist salary surveys unit - explains.

Continue reading "Economic commentary - February 2010: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 26, 2010

The recession is finally over... for now at least

The UK economy has finally emerged from what has proved to be the longest recession on record (PDF format, 96.6K) (external website), according to latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published today (Tuesday 26 January 2010), the BBC reports. But fears remain that recovery could prove short-lived.

Continue reading "The recession is finally over... for now at least" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 19, 2010

Spike in RPI inflation intensifies

After spending most of 2009 stuck in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has shown strong growth for a second successive month (PDF format, 210.7K) (external website), according to latest official data.

Continue reading "Spike in RPI inflation intensifies" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 11, 2010

Alistair Darling: Budget 2010 in March; election in May; "toughest" spending cuts in 20 years thereafter?

Labour is planning a post-election Comprehensive Spending Review which will prove to be "the toughest we have had for 20 years", according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling (external website) published in the Times on Saturday (9 January 2010). Darling also suggested that the 2010 Budget will be held prior to the 2010 general election, leading the Times to infer that we can expect Budget 2010 in March, followed by an election on 6 May 2010.

Continue reading "Alistair Darling: Budget 2010 in March; election in May; "toughest" spending cuts in 20 years thereafter?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 20, 2010

Unemployment holds at 7.8%

The headline unemployment rate has held firm at 7.8% (subscription required), according to latest official unemployment data published today (Wednesday 20 January 2010).

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 4, 2010

2010 will be a "busy and uncertain" year for pay setters

The advent of the new year can be viewed with "a certain cautious optimism" in terms of the economic outlook, with a technical end to the recession a distinct possibility. This is according to my colleague Mark Crail in the latest monthly economic commentary from XpertHR's specialist salary survey unit, CELRE. But challenging conditions mean that the opening stretch of 2010 "will be busy and uncertain months for all those involved in pay setting".
Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 7, 2010

Interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%, and unlikely to budge during 2010

The first interest rate decision of 2010 has now been announced by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Unsurprisingly, UK interest rates have once more been held at their record low of 0.5% (external website). The smart money is now on them remaining unchanged at this level for the remainder of this year.

Continue reading "Interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%, and unlikely to budge during 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

January 12, 2010

Keep track of key economic indicators the easy way in 2010

Keeping up-to-date with movements in key economic indicators can be a time-consuming process. To make things easier, our colleagues at personneltoday.com have launched a great new resource drawing together latest data and expert commentary on key economic indicators. The personneltoday.com Indicator page is a resource of links to latest economic and labour market statistics, data and commentary for HR professionals, employment practitioners, recruiters and reward specialists.

Continue reading "Keep track of key economic indicators the easy way in 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 29, 2009

The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 2)

It can't have escaped anyone's attention that 2009 has seen a harsh and relentless rise in unemployment as the UK labour market reels from the full impact of the longest recession on record. Yet it can be argued that the unemployment rate could, and by all rights should, be a lot worse given the severity of the economic downturn.

Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 2)" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 28, 2009

The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 1)

The UK labour market has reached a turning point with the arrival of 2010, and "a sense of cautious optimism is now building, [..'] reflected in an upturn in job supplies across many sectors", according to Totajobs director John Salt,  commenting on latest data from the Totaljobs Barometer (external website), published today. But this increasingly optimistic outlook is tempered by the harsh reality facing job seekers in the current climate. As Salt puts it:

[A] backlog of job seekers means that securing the next step on the career ladder has never been more competitive.

Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 1)" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 22, 2009

Recession refuses to thaw in time for Christmas 2009

The UK economy is inching slowly back towards recovery, but remains in recession (external website) for now. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal. This marks the third successive month in which official figures on third-quarter GDP growth have failed to deliver an end to what is proving to be the longest recession on record (external website).

Continue reading "Recession refuses to thaw in time for Christmas 2009" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 9, 2009

Pre-Budget Report 2009: the small print on bankers' bonuses

 The reactions are coming in to the Chancellor's widely trailed proposal for a one-off tax on bonuses in the banking sector. Unsurprisingly the CBI warns that the "threat of an exodus of talent is real" while the TUC describes Darling's proposal as "at the modest end of what he could have done". Bankers have "no divine right to giant bonuses every year," says TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber.

But how will the tax actually work and are there any loopholes?

Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: the small print on bankers' bonuses" »

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Pre-Budget Report 2009: The speech

Chancellor Alistair Darling has now concluded what was arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we provide coverage of the Pre-Budget Report 2009 speech, highlighting the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals.

Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: The speech" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (2) |

December 17, 2009

RPI inflation: Back in black for 2010

After spending much of 2009 in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has risen sharply, climbing out of the red and back into the black to see out the calendar year.

Continue reading "RPI inflation: Back in black for 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 3, 2009

Could the recession be over in time for Christmas?

The UK economy remains mired in what is proving to be the longest recession on record, with latest official estimates showing gross domestic product (GDP) growth still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009. But is there a possibility, however slim, that it could all be over in time for Christmas?

Continue reading "Could the recession be over in time for Christmas?" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 2, 2009

Pre-Budget Report 2009: What can HR expect?

Next Wednesday (9 December 2009), Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver what is arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we take a look at what HR might expect from the Pre-Budget Report 2009.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

December 1, 2009

Economic outlook December 2009: 'Tis the season to be cautiously optimistic

A return to growth for pay awards and the possibility of an imminent end to the recession are good grounds for festive cheer - but don't get too carried away, according to the December 2009 economic commentary from CELRE, XpertHR's salary survey specialists.

Continue reading "Economic outlook December 2009: 'Tis the season to be cautiously optimistic" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 25, 2009

UK recession drags on... for now

The UK economy remains in recession (PDF format, 159.9K) (external website), with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a second successive month in which official figures have shown the economy's stubborn refusal to return to growth.

Continue reading "UK recession drags on... for now" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (2) |

November 17, 2009

The recession is over, says Bank of England MPC external member

A growing body of evidence "suggests the UK economy has moved onto a recovery track and growth has resumed in the second half of this year", signalling the end of the 2008/2009 recession (PDF format, 83.7K) (external website). This is according to a speech made last night by Andrew Sentance, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Continue reading "The recession is over, says Bank of England MPC external member" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 11, 2009

Inflation Report November 2009: Economic recovery is "likely"

The UK economy looks set to return to growth over "the coming quarters", according to the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today. However, the Bank of England also cautions that this will not necessarily mean a return to the levels of economic output seen before the recession.

Continue reading "Inflation Report November 2009: Economic recovery is "likely"" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

Pre-Budget Report 2009: 9 December confirmed

The Treasury has confirmed that the Chancellor will deliver the Pre-Budget Report on Wednesday 9 December 2009. The speech will start as usual at 12:30pm.

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 10, 2009

Pre-Budget Report 2009: 9 December 2009?

The Pre-Budget Report is pencilled in for Wednesday 9 December, according to a tip in the Times spotted by my colleague Stephen Simpson. If correct, this is later than most commentators expected (eg see comments from accountants Deloitte).

We'll be providing coverage on the day of the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals here on Employment Intelligence.

Sarah Welfare | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 11, 2009

UK unemployment rate is 7.8%

The headline unemployment rate now stands at 7.8%, according to latest official unemployment data (PDF format, 342.6K) (external website) published today (Wednesday 11 November 2009).

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 17, 2009

RPI inflation rises to -0.8%

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation stands at -0.8% (PDF format, 203.7K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. The headline rate of inflation therefore remains parked in negative territory for an eighth consecutive month. But there are signs that it could soon be back in the black.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 5, 2009

Interest rates stuck at 0.5% ...and likely to remain so

UK interest rates remain frozen at their record low of 0.5% (external website), following the latest announcement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at midday today. Some economic commentators now believe that the MPC will be forced to maintain interest rates at this 315-year low for an extended period, in order to help boost the UK's weak return to economic growth.

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Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

October 26, 2009

Why the prolonged recession doesn't have to mean depression

The ongoing watch for the green shoots of economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by the publication on Friday (23 October 2009) of preliminary official data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2009, which showed a surprise fall of 0.4 percentage points (PDF format, 100K) (external website). These estimates wrong-footed economic commentators by failing to deliver the expected return to economic growth, which would have signalled the end of the current recession. The CIPD takes a particularly bleak view (external website), arguing that this development "makes the recession look more like a depression, and demolishes any prospect there was of an early improvement in the outlook for jobs and pay." But things might not be quite so bleak.

Continue reading "Why the prolonged recession doesn't have to mean depression" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 2, 2009

Economic outlook November 2009: Unemployment is the biggest threat to economic recovery in 2010

Pay freezes have dominated private sector reward over the past year, and look set to hit the public sector in 2010. But rising unemployment could pose the biggest threat to economic recovery, according to the November 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit.

Continue reading "Economic outlook November 2009: Unemployment is the biggest threat to economic recovery in 2010" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) |

November 6, 2009

Public sector job cuts in 2010 could hit the UK's "zombie economy" hard

No matter who wins the 2010 general election, swingeing cuts in public spending are on the cards, with widespread public sector job cuts seemingly inevitable. The resulting rise in unemployment could deal a decisive blow to what Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott describes as the UK's current "zombie economy" (external website).

Continue reading "Public sector job cuts in 2010 could hit the UK's "zombie economy" hard" »

Michael Carty | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1) |

November 4, 2009

Double-dip recession risk for 2010: Are we on the second leg of the W?

As we recently n