With less than ten days to go until the 2010 Budget, Chancellor Alistair Darling confirmed to Sky News on Sunday that there would be no comprehensive spending review until after the 2010 general election (external website).
Continue reading "Budget 2010: Little room for manoeuvre" »
"The recession may have technically ended, but there is no room for complacency," (external website) according to British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) director general David Frost. Frost argues that the Budget 2010 could prove critical in helping the UK avoid a double-dip recession.
Continue reading ""No room for complacency" on economic recovery, BCC warns" »
The UK jobs market is showing signs of recovery from the pounding it took during the recession, but
post-election public spending cuts could harm its prospects (external website). This according to latest monthly research from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) and consultants KPMG.
Continue reading "Public sector spending cuts could scupper jobs market recovery, REC warns" »
For now at least, the UK's emergence from recession is ongoing and the economy appears to be gaining in strength - albeit very slowly indeed. Latest revised estimates published today (Friday 26 February 2010) on economic growth show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (external website). This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the original estimate of 0.1%, which was published in January 2010.
But after a slew of largely dismal economic news throughout February 2010, speculation continues to mount among economic commentators that we could see a double-dip recession.
Continue reading "Economic recovery sustained - but double-dip recession risk remains" »
Chancellor Alistair Darling has confirmed that the
Budget 2010 will take place during March (external website), although the exact date has not yet been announced.
Continue reading "Budget 2010 confirmed for March" »
The latest quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 3.4MB) (external website) provides much for economic commentators to pick over. While the Bank of England expects the UK's return to economic growth to be sustained, a dominant theme of the report is the "uncertainty" of the overall economic outlook.
Continue reading "Inflation Report February 2010: "Slow recovery" and "uncertainty" in prospect" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has registered a third consecutive month of very strong growth (external website), with the increase in VAT serving to contribute to rising prices in January 2010, according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Continue reading "RPI inflation shows further strong growth, hitting 3.7% in January 2010" »
UK interest rates are now just one month shy of notching up a whole calendar year at the current all-time low rate of 0.5%. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced that
interest rates will once again be held at 0.5%, following the February 2010 MPC meeting.
Continue reading "Interest rates on course for one year at 0.5%" »
A quick spot of Friday afternoon food for thought: In his latest column for the New Statesman, economist and former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member David Blanchflower coins two interesting new phrases with which to conjure:
the "Enormous Depression" and the "Osborne Dip" (external website).
Continue reading "After the "Enormous Depression", the "Osborne Dip"?" »
So confident in the UK's prospects for economic recovery in 2010 is Andrew Sentance - an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - that he's coined a new phrase to describe it: "bounce-backability" (external website).
Continue reading "UK economy has "bounce-backability"" »
With the new decade well underway, the casual observer could be forgiven for finding the economic outlook distinctly optimistic. The economy has, after all, made a belated return to economic growth, signalling an end to the longest recession on record. But there are still reasons to be cautious, as the latest monthly economic commentary article from CELRE - XpertHR's specialist salary surveys unit - explains.
Continue reading "Economic commentary - February 2010: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" »
The UK economy has finally emerged from what has proved to be the longest recession on record (PDF format, 96.6K) (external website), according to latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published today (Tuesday 26 January 2010), the BBC reports. But fears remain that recovery could prove short-lived.
Continue reading "The recession is finally over... for now at least" »
Labour is planning a post-election Comprehensive Spending Review which will prove to be "the toughest we have had for 20 years", according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling (external website) published in the Times on Saturday (9 January 2010). Darling also suggested that the 2010 Budget will be held prior to the 2010 general election, leading the Times to infer that we can expect Budget 2010 in March, followed by an election on 6 May 2010.
Continue reading "Alistair Darling: Budget 2010 in March; election in May; "toughest" spending cuts in 20 years thereafter?" »
The headline unemployment rate has held firm at 7.8% (subscription required), according to latest official unemployment data published today (Wednesday 20 January 2010).
Continue reading "Unemployment holds at 7.8%" »
The first interest rate decision of 2010 has now been announced by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Unsurprisingly, UK interest rates have once more been held at their record low of 0.5% (external website). The smart money is now on them remaining unchanged at this level for the remainder of this year.
Continue reading "Interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%, and unlikely to budge during 2010" »
Keeping up-to-date with movements in key economic indicators can be a time-consuming process. To make things easier, our colleagues at personneltoday.com have launched a great new resource drawing together latest data and expert commentary on key economic indicators. The personneltoday.com Indicator page is a resource of links to latest economic and labour market statistics, data and commentary for HR professionals, employment practitioners, recruiters and reward specialists.
Continue reading "Keep track of key economic indicators the easy way in 2010" »
It can't have escaped anyone's attention that 2009 has seen a harsh and relentless rise in unemployment as the UK labour market reels from the full impact of the
longest recession on record. Yet it can be argued that the unemployment rate could, and by all rights should, be a lot worse given the severity of the economic downturn.
Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 2)" »
The UK labour market has reached a turning point with the arrival of 2010, and "a sense of cautious optimism is now building, [..'] reflected in an upturn in job supplies across many sectors", according to Totajobs director John Salt, commenting on latest data from the Totaljobs Barometer (external website), published today. But this increasingly optimistic outlook is tempered by the harsh reality facing job seekers in the current climate. As Salt puts it:
[A] backlog of job seekers means that securing the next step on the career ladder has never been more competitive.
Continue reading "The UK labour market in 2010: Time for "cautious optimism"? (Part 1)" »
The UK economy is inching slowly back towards recovery, but
remains in recession (external website) for now. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal. This marks the third successive month in which official figures on third-quarter GDP growth have failed to deliver an end to what is proving to be the
longest recession on record (external website).
Continue reading "Recession refuses to thaw in time for Christmas 2009" »
The reactions are coming in to the Chancellor's widely trailed proposal for a one-off tax on bonuses in the banking sector. Unsurprisingly the CBI warns that the "threat of an exodus of talent is real" while the TUC describes Darling's proposal as "at the modest end of what he could have done". Bankers have "no divine right to giant bonuses every year," says TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber.
But how will the tax actually work and are there any loopholes?
Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: the small print on bankers' bonuses" »
Chancellor Alistair Darling has now concluded what was arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we provide coverage of the Pre-Budget Report 2009 speech, highlighting the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals.
Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: The speech" »
After spending much of 2009 in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has risen sharply, climbing out of the red and back into the black to see out the calendar year.
Continue reading "RPI inflation: Back in black for 2010" »
The UK economy remains mired in what is proving to be the longest recession on record, with latest official estimates showing gross domestic product (GDP) growth still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009. But is there a possibility, however slim, that it could all be over in time for Christmas?
Continue reading "Could the recession be over in time for Christmas?" »
Next Wednesday (9 December 2009), Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver what is arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we take a look at what HR might expect from the Pre-Budget Report 2009.
Continue reading "Pre-Budget Report 2009: What can HR expect?" »
A return to growth for pay awards and the possibility of an imminent end to the recession are good grounds for festive cheer - but don't get too carried away, according to the December 2009 economic commentary from CELRE, XpertHR's salary survey specialists.
Continue reading "Economic outlook December 2009: 'Tis the season to be cautiously optimistic" »
The UK economy remains in recession (PDF format, 159.9K) (external website), with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a second successive month in which official figures have shown the economy's stubborn refusal to return to growth.
Continue reading "UK recession drags on... for now" »
A growing body of evidence "suggests the UK economy has moved onto a recovery track and growth has resumed in the second half of this year", signalling
the end of the 2008/2009 recession (PDF format, 83.7K) (external website). This is according to a speech made last night by Andrew Sentance, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Continue reading "The recession is over, says Bank of England MPC external member" »
The UK economy looks set to return to growth over "the coming quarters", according to the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today. However, the Bank of England also cautions that this will not necessarily mean a return to the levels of economic output seen before the recession.
Continue reading "Inflation Report November 2009: Economic recovery is "likely"" »
The headline unemployment rate now stands at 7.8%, according to latest official unemployment data (PDF format, 342.6K) (external website) published today (Wednesday 11 November 2009).
Continue reading "UK unemployment rate is 7.8%" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation stands at -0.8% (PDF format, 203.7K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. The headline rate of inflation therefore remains parked in negative territory for an eighth consecutive month. But there are signs that it could soon be back in the black.
Continue reading "RPI inflation rises to -0.8%" »
UK interest rates remain frozen at their record low of 0.5% (external website), following the latest announcement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at midday today. Some economic commentators now believe that the MPC will be forced to maintain interest rates at this 315-year low for an extended period, in order to help boost the UK's weak return to economic growth.
Continue reading "Interest rates stuck at 0.5% ...and likely to remain so" »
The ongoing watch for the green shoots of economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by the publication on Friday (23 October 2009) of preliminary official data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2009, which showed a surprise fall of 0.4 percentage points (PDF format, 100K) (external website). These estimates wrong-footed economic commentators by failing to deliver the expected return to economic growth, which would have signalled the end of the current recession. The CIPD takes a particularly bleak view (external website), arguing that this development "makes the recession look more like a depression, and demolishes any prospect there was of an early improvement in the outlook for jobs and pay." But things might not be quite so bleak.
Continue reading "Why the prolonged recession doesn't have to mean depression" »
Pay freezes have dominated private sector reward over the past year, and look set to hit the public sector in 2010. But rising unemployment could pose the biggest threat to economic recovery, according to the
November 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit.
Continue reading "Economic outlook November 2009: Unemployment is the biggest threat to economic recovery in 2010" »
No matter who wins the 2010 general election, swingeing cuts in public spending are on the cards, with widespread public sector job cuts seemingly inevitable. The resulting rise in unemployment could deal a decisive blow to what Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott describes as the UK's current "zombie economy" (external website).
Continue reading "Public sector job cuts in 2010 could hit the UK's "zombie economy" hard" »
As we recently noted, many economic commentators continue to warn of a "double-dip recession". One such scenario is a "W-shaped" recession, in which economic growth declines then returns to recovery, only to dip back into recession again before at last making a full recovery.
Continue reading "Double-dip recession risk for 2010: Are we on the second leg of the W?" »
The headline unemployment rate now stands at 7.9%, according to
latest official unemployment data (PDF format, 345.9K) (external website) published today (Wednesday 14 October 2009). While the rate of increase in unemployment now appears to be slowing, the unemployment level nonetheless remains on track to peak at three million in early 2010.
Continue reading "UK unemployment rate hits 7.9%" »
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that UK interest rates will once again be held 0.5% (external website). The interest rate consequently shows no sign of budging from 05%: the lowest level ever seen in the 315-year history of the Bank of England.
Continue reading "Interest rate stays frozen at 0.5% in October 2009" »
As autumn 2009 gets underway, the economic situation is looking decidedly mixed. The UK could already have exited the 2008/2009 recession, but economic recovery remains precarious with a relapse back into recession possible, according to the October 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit.
Continue reading "Economic outlook October 2009: Recovery is by no means guaranteed" »
The UK economy will exit the 2008/2009 recession in the current quarter, but both economic growth and wage growth will be "weak" in 2010, according to the latest quarterly economic forecasts from the
CBI (external website), published today.
Continue reading "Weak wage growth in prospect for 2010, says CBI" »
Gordon Brown's TUC conference speech later today (15 September 2009) is expected to mark the first time that the word "cuts" is publicly used by a senior Labour figure with regard to the current focus on the future of public spending.
Continue reading "Gordon Brown set to go public on public spending cuts" »
With swingeing public spending cuts - likely to result in severe pay restraint and job cuts in the public sector - seemingly on the cards whether
Labour or the
Conservatives win the 2010 general election, the TUC has issued a
grim warning that such action could plunge the UK back into recession (external website).
Continue reading "Public sector job cuts could cause a "double-quick, double dip recession" in 2010, says TUC" »
The
recession could be over (PDF format, 144.8K), according to latest estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). But this does not necessarily mean that a return to the economic good times is just around the corner.
Continue reading "Recession could be over - but don't get your hopes up too far" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation - the most important inflation measure for pay setters - remains stuck in negative territory but is showing some signs of improvement (PDF format, 202K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. Indeed, it now seems possible that RPI could accelerate rapidly in the next few months.
Continue reading "RPI inflation is still negative, but showing signs of life" »
Unemployment has shown further strong growth (PDF format, 336.5K) (external website), hitting 7.9% over the three months to July 2009, according to latest official data out today. And while some commentators argue that the recession could already be over, unemployment looks set to top the three million mark in the coming months.
Continue reading "Unemployment is still on course to top three million" »
We could be facing the prospect of a "double-dip recession", in which the current tentative signs of recovery grind to a halt and the economy relapses back into recession, according to an increasing number of economic commentators.
Continue reading "Warnings grow of a relapse back into recession" »
The NHS should cut 137,00 clinical and administrative posts (external website) - equivalent to 10% of its workforce - in order to achieve a planned £20 billion-worth of cost savings by 2014. This is according to a confidential report to the Department of Health commissioned from consultants McKinsey and Company.
Continue reading "NHS should cut 10% of workforce, say consultants" »
...that public sector employment has never been higher?
Note: the latest spike in public sector employment is actually due to the de facto nationalisation of RBS and Lloyds Banking Group.
Continue reading "(Un)employment facts: did you know..." »
The end of the recession is in sight, with the UK set to return to positive economic growth in the next few months (external website), according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling in the Sunday Times.
Continue reading "Economic recovery is imminent, says Chancellor" »
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced that interest rates will once again be held at 0.5% (external website), following the MPC's September 2009 meeting. This represents the seventh consecutive month of interest rates running at this historically low rate. And recent developments suggest that rates are now likely to be held at this level for longer than was previously expected.
Continue reading "Interest rates stuck at 0.5% in September 2009" »
The 2009 UK recession is proving deeper than expected, but the economy is nonetheless expected to return to growth in the near future - quite possibly during the closing months of 2009. This is according to the Bank of England's August 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today.
Continue reading "Inflation Report August 2009: Economic growth "more than likely" to resume in late 2009" »
The cliché has it that "when America catches a cold, the world sneezes". But what happens when a bit of colour starts to return to America's cheeks? Latest US job figures would appear to give some reason to be optimistic (external website) as to the fortunes of the country's labour market.
Continue reading "Are latest US jobs figures a sign of better times ahead?" »
The summer holiday season is upon us, but the economic outlook is far from sunny, with
pay awards and
inflation plumbing uncharted depths while
unemployment soars. Yet there remain reasons to be optimistic. The August 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit - finds that
prospects for economic recovery now hang in the balance: there would seem to be a roughly equal possibility that things will either improve henceforth, or become significantly worse.
Continue reading "Economic outlook August 2009: Recovery prospects hang in the balance" »
UK economic growth remains in negative territory as the recession drags on. Latest official data show that gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.8% (PDF format, 100K) (external website) in the second quarter of 2009 compared with the first quarter. Yet this fifth successive quarterly fall in GDP growth can actually be interpreted as a comparatively positive development.
Continue reading "UK economy shrinks by 0.8% in second quarter of 2009" »
UK interest rates have reached six months at the historic low rate of 0.5% (external website), following today's announcement that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will once again leave rates unchanged.
Continue reading "Interest rates notch up six months at 0.5%" »
The investment banks appear to be roaring back into life (external website), bringing the return of both massive profitability and, for some, massive bonuses. While many argue that finance sector bonuses are at the root of the recession, could it be the case that they will also get us out of it?
Continue reading "Why the return of banking bonuses could signal the end of the recession" »
Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower has issued a stark warning against cutting public spending during the recession (external website). In Blanchflower's words:
If you want to transform a recession into a depression, go ahead and cut public spending.
Continue reading "Could public sector pay restraint in 2010 help 'transform recession into depression'?" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has notched up a fourth month in negative territory, plunging to
an unprecedented low of -1.6% in June 2009 (PDF format, 196.3K) (external website), according to latest official inflation data, published today.
Continue reading "RPI inflation plunges to all-time low of -1.6%" »
The headline pay award for UK workers has slumped to an unprecedented low of 1.3%, and could be set to fall further over the remainder of the year. This is a result of the interplay of many factors, including the fact that retail prices index (RPI) inflation - the key measure for pay setters - is languishing in negative territory (a situation that is unliely to change when latest RPI data are published later this morning). But movements in pay awards can in turn contribute to movements in inflation. Some commentators now believe that the current record lows in pay awards in 2009 could exert either upward or downward pressure on inflation in 2010.
Continue reading "Weak pay awards in 2009 could lead to higher inflation OR to deflation in 2010" »
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) let it be known at midday today that UK interest rates are to notch up a fifth successive month at their current all-time low of 0.5% (external website). The persistence of interest rates at such a historically unprecedented low is just one example of a key characteristic of the current recession: the previously unthinkable rapidly becoming commonplace.
Continue reading "UK interest rates stuck at 0.5%: the unthinkable remains commonplace" »
We recently noted that UK employers hit hard by the 2009 recession are exploring a range of measures to stave off redundancies as long as possible, from pay freezes to short-time working. But more radical responses are starting to emerge, with BT and the CBI leading the way.
Continue reading "Alternatives to redundancy: radical proposals from BT and the CBI" »
As a new month gets underway, and with summer in full swing (subscription required), the July 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit - looks in detail at the prospects for the UK economy, and whether claims that we are seeing the "green shoots" of economic recovery might yet wither in the summer heat.
Continue reading "Economic outlook July 2009: Keep on the sunny side?" »
UK interest rates are currently languishing at a historic low of 0.5%, but it is altogether possible that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could act in the near future to begin raising rates once more - perhaps to the 5% level of this time last year (external website).
Continue reading "UK interest rates could rebound to 5% 'norm' in 2010" »
Unemployment continues to soar as the 2009 recession drags on (PDF format, 330k) (external website), according to latest official data published today. And new assessments from both the CBI and the TUC suggest that unemployment will continue to rise sharply, even once economic recovery gets underway.
Continue reading "Unemployment rising sharply in June 2009, and will keep rising when economy recovers in 2010" »
Pay freezes all round? Not apparently in football's Premier League, where, according to a report out today, the wages bill grew by an astonishing 26% last year, exceeding £1 billion for the first time ever.
Continue reading "Pay rises for footballers - penalties for CEOs" »
In line with what has now become a standard pattern over the last few months, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that June 2009 will see UK interest rates once again held at their current all-time low of 0.5% (external website). And it would seem very unlikely that we will see any deviation from this pattern until some time in 2010.
Continue reading "UK interest rates static at 0.5% in June 2009, and likely to remain so until 2010" »
David Blanchflower - who stepped down from his position as a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee last week - has used an 'exit interview' with the Times to warn that for all the hopeful talk of green shoots of economic recovery, the recession is far from over.
Continue reading "Economic recovery: beware of 'false dawns'" »
Employee pay awards have fallen to the lowest level on record, according to the monthly pay figures from IRS out today [subscription required].
The median basic pay rise in the three months to 30 April 2009 is just 1.5% - down by one whole percentage point from the revised 2.5% median for the three months to the end of March.
This is the lowest headline figure recorded by IRS since we began publishing pay settlement data back in 1971.
Continue reading "Pay awards slump to record low" »
The
TUC's latest Recession Report (PDF format, 1.6MB) (on the TUC website) presents an in-depth exploration of the factors underlying the economic indicators of greatest interest to employers as the 2009 recession unfolds, such as employment and unemployment levels, pay awards and inflation. And amazingly, it's not
all bad news.
Continue reading "TUC report finds 'silver lining' in 2009 recession" »
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that UK interest rates will once again be held 0.5% (external website), thereby remaining at their lowest level since the Bank of England was established in 1694.
Continue reading "UK interest rates remain at 0.5% in May 2009" »
As our current political leadership keep reminding us, we should be trying to invest and hence grow our way out of the recession. This might seem counter-intuitive but no more so that the opposite position, characterised in the 1930s as 'liquidationist' and perhaps thought of these days as 'creative destruction'. (The once-again-popular Keynes made this comment at the time which could be dropped into a more modern context without a lot of modification.)
So assuming that investment is the way forward, how exactly should as UK business go about things? Well, given the UK's non-reliance on so-called productive industries, any investment is going to fall heavily on one area: people.
Continue reading "Is now the time to invest in people?" »
Chancellor Alistair Darling has now delivered Budget 2009, and the reactions are coming through thick and fast. Following on from our live blog on Budget 2009, we report on the verdicts from the usual suspects. This will be updated over the course of today (Wednesday 22 April 2009) and tomorrow (Thursday 23 April 2009) as more reactions are published.
Continue reading "Budget 2009: reactions" »
As the final bets are placed on what the Budget will contain, we gear up to covering the Budget statement live on Employment Intelligence from 12:30pm tomorrow.
The odds that the Chancellor will use the word "sorry" are running at five to one according to William Hill. But the chances that Alistair Darling will have to mention the word "unemployment" are far higher. The labour market figures - released at 9:30am tomorrow by the Office for National Statistics - are expected to show a "significant further deterioration" by the Royal Bank of Scotland, which itself is currently consulting on job losses.
Continue reading "Budget 2009: the U-word" »
Spring, as the song once put it, is busting out all over. And with it has arrived a chorus of voices to suggest that the UK economy might be on the verge of recovery, with the end of the recession in sight.
Continue reading "Economic outlook April 2009: End of recession in sight?" »
Over the next week I'll be covering the run-up to next wednesday's Budget - counting down to the moment when the Chancellor stands up to tackle "a tougher task than any British Chancellor of the past 100 years" according to some.
So what are employers and unions lobbying the Chancellor for?
Continue reading "Budget 2009: who wants what" »
To no-one's great surprise, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that
UK interest rates will be held at the current historic low of 0.5% (on the Bank of England website) in April 2009.
Continue reading "UK interest rates held at 0.5% in April 2009" »
Today's announcement of
zero inflation on the retail prices index (RPI) measure for February 2009 will have a
severe impact on pay awards settling over the remainder of 2009 (external website) according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).
Continue reading "2009 to see 'spring and summer of pay depression', says CIPD" »
Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has turned negative (subscription required) for the first time since February 1960, according to latest official figures published today. Today's data show a sixth consecutive monthly fall in RPI, dropping by 0.4 percentage points to stand at -0.4% in March 2009. However, this outcome does not necessarily mean that deflation has arrived.
Continue reading "RPI inflation turns negative in March 2009; but is this deflation?" »