With less than ten days to go until the 2010 Budget, Chancellor Alistair Darling confirmed to Sky News on Sunday that there would be no comprehensive spending review until after the 2010 general election (external website).

The headline unemployment rate has fallen back to 7.8% (PDF format, 324.2K) (external website), according to latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is its first fall in more than 18 months.

"The recession may have technically ended, but there is no room for complacency," (external website) according to British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) director general David Frost. Frost argues that the Budget 2010 could prove critical in helping the UK avoid a double-dip recession.

The Budget 2010 will see decisions on public spending cuts "postponed" until after the 2010 general election (external website), according to the Sunday Times.

For now at least, the UK's emergence from recession is ongoing and the economy appears to be gaining in strength - albeit very slowly indeed. Latest revised estimates published today (Friday 26 February 2010) on economic growth show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (external website). This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points on the original estimate of 0.1%, which was published in January 2010.

But after a slew of largely dismal economic news throughout February 2010, speculation continues to mount among economic commentators that we could see a double-dip recession.

The UK economy's recovery from recession is now underway, but the outlook for growth (and for pay, jobs and unemployment) is anything but certain, according to latest analysis from XpertHR salary surveys.

Unemployment remains high, yet the headline unemployment rate continues to surprise by refusing to budge from 7.8% (PDF format, 349.1K) (external website) for a third consecutive rolling quarter, latest official data published today reveal.

The latest quarterly Inflation Report from the Bank of England (PDF format, 3.4MB) (external website) provides much for economic commentators to pick over. While the Bank of England expects the UK's return to economic growth to be sustained, a dominant theme of the report is the "uncertainty" of the overall economic outlook.

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has registered a third consecutive month of very strong growth (external website), with the increase in VAT serving to contribute to rising prices in January 2010, according to the latest official data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The unemployment rate across the 16 countries in the Eurozone has hit double figures, rising to 10% (external website), according to latest official data published today. The Eurozone therefore joins the US in what might be termed "the 10% club" when it comes to unemployment the US rate having broken the double-figure barrier in October 2009 (PDF format, 211K) (external website), and running at 10% as at December 2009).

So confident in the UK's prospects for economic recovery in 2010 is Andrew Sentance - an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - that he's coined a new phrase to describe it: "bounce-backability" (external website).

With the new decade well underway, the casual observer could be forgiven for finding the economic outlook distinctly optimistic. The economy has, after all, made a belated return to economic growth, signalling an end to the longest recession on record.  But there are still reasons to be cautious, as the latest monthly economic commentary article from CELRE - XpertHR's specialist salary surveys unit - explains.

The UK economy has finally emerged from what has proved to be the longest recession on record (PDF format, 96.6K) (external website), according to latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published today (Tuesday 26 January 2010), the BBC reports. But fears remain that recovery could prove short-lived.

After spending most of 2009 stuck in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has shown strong growth for a second successive month (PDF format, 210.7K) (external website), according to latest official data.

Labour is planning a post-election Comprehensive Spending Review which will prove to be "the toughest we have had for 20 years", according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling (external website) published in the Times on Saturday (9 January 2010). Darling also suggested that the 2010 Budget will be held prior to the 2010 general election, leading the Times to infer that we can expect Budget 2010 in March, followed by an election on 6 May 2010.

The headline unemployment rate has held firm at 7.8% (subscription required), according to latest official unemployment data published today (Wednesday 20 January 2010).

The first interest rate decision of 2010 has now been announced by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Unsurprisingly, UK interest rates have once more been held at their record low of 0.5% (external website). The smart money is now on them remaining unchanged at this level for the remainder of this year.

Keeping up-to-date with movements in key economic indicators can be a time-consuming process. To make things easier, our colleagues at personneltoday.com have launched a great new resource drawing together latest data and expert commentary on key economic indicators. The personneltoday.com Indicator page is a resource of links to latest economic and labour market statistics, data and commentary for HR professionals, employment practitioners, recruiters and reward specialists.

The UK labour market has reached a turning point with the arrival of 2010, and "a sense of cautious optimism is now building, [..'] reflected in an upturn in job supplies across many sectors", according to Totajobs director John Salt,  commenting on latest data from the Totaljobs Barometer (external website), published today. But this increasingly optimistic outlook is tempered by the harsh reality facing job seekers in the current climate. As Salt puts it:

[A] backlog of job seekers means that securing the next step on the career ladder has never been more competitive.

 The reactions are coming in to the Chancellor's widely trailed proposal for a one-off tax on bonuses in the banking sector. Unsurprisingly the CBI warns that the "threat of an exodus of talent is real" while the TUC describes Darling's proposal as "at the modest end of what he could have done". Bankers have "no divine right to giant bonuses every year," says TUC General Secretary Brendan Barber.

But how will the tax actually work and are there any loopholes?

Chancellor Alistair Darling has now concluded what was arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we provide coverage of the Pre-Budget Report 2009 speech, highlighting the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals.

After spending much of 2009 in negative territory, retail prices index (RPI) inflation has risen sharply, climbing out of the red and back into the black to see out the calendar year.

The UK economy remains mired in what is proving to be the longest recession on record, with latest official estimates showing gross domestic product (GDP) growth still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009. But is there a possibility, however slim, that it could all be over in time for Christmas?

Next Wednesday (9 December 2009), Chancellor Alistair Darling will deliver what is arguably the most eagerly anticipated Pre-Budget Report since they were introduced in 1997. Here we take a look at what HR might expect from the Pre-Budget Report 2009.

A return to growth for pay awards and the possibility of an imminent end to the recession are good grounds for festive cheer - but don't get too carried away, according to the December 2009 economic commentary from CELRE, XpertHR's salary survey specialists.

The UK economy remains in recession (PDF format, 159.9K) (external website), with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) still stuck in negative territory in the third quarter of 2009, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This marks a second successive month in which official figures have shown the economy's stubborn refusal to return to growth.

The UK economy looks set to return to growth over "the coming quarters", according to the Bank of England's November 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today. However, the Bank of England also cautions that this will not necessarily mean a return to the levels of economic output seen before the recession.

The Treasury has confirmed that the Chancellor will deliver the Pre-Budget Report on Wednesday 9 December 2009. The speech will start as usual at 12:30pm.

The Pre-Budget Report is pencilled in for Wednesday 9 December, according to a tip in the Times spotted by my colleague Stephen Simpson. If correct, this is later than most commentators expected (eg see comments from accountants Deloitte).

We'll be providing coverage on the day of the proposals of most interest to HR and reward professionals here on Employment Intelligence.

The headline unemployment rate now stands at 7.8%, according to latest official unemployment data (PDF format, 342.6K) (external website) published today (Wednesday 11 November 2009).

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation stands at -0.8% (PDF format, 203.7K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. The headline rate of inflation therefore remains parked in negative territory for an eighth consecutive month. But there are signs that it could soon be back in the black.

UK interest rates remain frozen at their record low of 0.5% (external website), following the latest announcement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at midday today. Some economic commentators now believe that the MPC will be forced to maintain interest rates at this 315-year low for an extended period, in order to help boost the UK's weak return to economic growth.

The ongoing watch for the green shoots of economic recovery was dealt a severe blow by the publication on Friday (23 October 2009) of preliminary official data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2009, which showed a surprise fall of 0.4 percentage points (PDF format, 100K) (external website). These estimates wrong-footed economic commentators by failing to deliver the expected return to economic growth, which would have signalled the end of the current recession. The CIPD takes a particularly bleak view (external website), arguing that this development "makes the recession look more like a depression, and demolishes any prospect there was of an early improvement in the outlook for jobs and pay." But things might not be quite so bleak.

No matter who wins the 2010 general election, swingeing cuts in public spending are on the cards, with widespread public sector job cuts seemingly inevitable. The resulting rise in unemployment could deal a decisive blow to what Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott describes as the UK's current "zombie economy" (external website).

As we recently noted, many economic commentators continue to warn of a "double-dip recession". One such scenario is a "W-shaped" recession, in which economic growth declines then returns to recovery, only to dip back into recession again before at last making a full recovery.

The UK unemployment level has already topped the psychologically crucial three million mark (external website), and actually stands at 3.4 million, according to new research from the Industrial Communities Alliance, the Observer reports. This is in contrast to the prevailing view among economists that unemployment currently stands at just under 2.5 million (on the ILO definition) and will peak at around three million during 2010.

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation once again remains in negative territory at -1.4% (PDF format, 60.7K) (external website), according to latest official data published today (Tuesday 13 October 2009). It is now seven months since RPI went negative, the first time the headline rate had fallen below zero since February 1960.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that UK interest rates will once again be held 0.5% (external website). The interest rate consequently shows no sign of budging from 05%: the lowest level ever seen in the 315-year history of the Bank of England.

As autumn 2009 gets underway, the economic situation is looking decidedly mixed. The UK could already have exited the 2008/2009 recession, but economic recovery remains precarious with a relapse back into recession possible, according to the October 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit.

The UK faces the "tightest squeeze" on public spending since the 1970s (PDF format, 382.7K), according to research published on the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) website. The impact on public sector pay awards for 2010 and beyond could be severe.

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation - the most important inflation measure for pay setters - remains stuck in negative territory but is showing some signs of improvement (PDF format, 202K) (external website), according to latest official data published today. Indeed, it now seems possible that RPI could accelerate rapidly in the next few months.

Unemployment has shown further strong growth (PDF format, 336.5K) (external website), hitting 7.9% over the three months to July 2009, according to latest official data out today. And while some commentators argue that the recession could already be over, unemployment looks set to top the three million mark in the coming months.

We could be facing the prospect of a "double-dip recession", in which the current tentative signs of recovery grind to a halt and the economy relapses back into recession, according to an increasing number of economic commentators.

The NHS should cut 137,00 clinical and administrative posts (external website) - equivalent to 10% of its workforce - in order to achieve a planned £20 billion-worth of cost savings by 2014. This is according to a confidential report to the Department of Health commissioned from consultants McKinsey and Company.

The end of the recession is in sight, with the UK set to return to positive economic growth in the next few months (external website), according to an interview with Chancellor Alistair Darling in the Sunday Times.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced that interest rates will once again be held at 0.5% (external website), following the MPC's September 2009 meeting. This represents the seventh consecutive month of interest rates running at this historically low rate. And recent developments suggest that rates are now likely to be held at this level for longer than was previously expected.

The 2009 UK recession is proving deeper than expected, but the economy is nonetheless expected to return to growth in the near future - quite possibly during the closing months of 2009. This is according to the Bank of England's August 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.8MB) (external website) - which provides the latest snapshot of the Bank of England's view of the UK economy alongside projections for its future performance - published today.

The cliché has it that "when America catches a cold, the world sneezes". But what happens when a bit of colour starts to return to America's cheeks? Latest US job figures would appear to give some reason to be optimistic (external website) as to the fortunes of the country's labour market.

The investment banks appear to be roaring back into life (external website), bringing the return of both massive profitability and, for some, massive bonuses. While many argue that finance sector bonuses are at the root of the recession, could it be the case that they will also get us out of it?

Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower has issued a stark warning against cutting public spending during the recession (external website). In Blanchflower's words:

If you want to transform a recession into a depression, go ahead and cut public spending.

The UK unemployment rate has once again shown strong growth (Word document, 28.5K) (external website) as the impact of the recession continues to bite, according to latest official data out today.

The headline pay award for UK workers has slumped to an unprecedented low of 1.3%, and could be set to fall further over the remainder of the year. This is a result of the interplay of many factors, including the fact that retail prices index (RPI) inflation - the key measure for pay setters - is languishing in negative territory (a situation that is unliely to change when latest RPI data are published later this morning). But movements in pay awards can in turn contribute to movements in inflation. Some commentators now believe that the current record lows in pay awards in 2009 could exert either upward or downward pressure on inflation in 2010.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) let it be known at midday today that UK interest rates are to notch up a fifth successive month at their current all-time low of 0.5% (external website). The persistence of interest rates at such a historically unprecedented low is just one example of a key characteristic of the current recession: the previously unthinkable rapidly becoming commonplace.

We recently noted that UK employers hit hard by the 2009 recession are exploring a range of measures to stave off redundancies as long as possible, from pay freezes to short-time working. But more radical responses are starting to emerge, with BT and the CBI leading the way.

As a new month gets underway, and with summer in full swing (subscription required), the July 2009 economic commentary from CELRE - XpertHR's salary surveys unit - looks in detail at the prospects for the UK economy, and whether claims that we are seeing the "green shoots" of economic recovery might yet wither in the summer heat.

UK interest rates are currently languishing at a historic low of 0.5%, but it is altogether possible that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could act in the near future to begin raising rates once more - perhaps to the 5% level of this time last year (external website).

Pay freezes all round? Not apparently in football's Premier League, where, according to a report out today, the wages bill grew by an astonishing 26% last year, exceeding £1 billion for the first time ever.

In line with what has now become a standard pattern over the last few months, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that June 2009 will see UK interest rates once again held at their current all-time low of 0.5% (external website). And it would seem very unlikely that we will see any deviation from this pattern until some time in 2010.

David Blanchflower - who stepped down from his position as a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee last week - has used an 'exit interview' with the Times to warn that for all the hopeful talk of green shoots of economic recovery, the recession is far from over.

Employee pay awards have fallen to the lowest level on record, according to the monthly pay figures from IRS out today [subscription required].

The median basic pay rise in the three months to 30 April 2009 is just 1.5% - down by one whole percentage point from the revised 2.5% median for the three months to the end of March.

This is the lowest headline figure recorded by IRS since we began publishing pay settlement data back in 1971.

The Bank of England published its May 2009 Inflation Report (PDF format, 2.6MB) (external website) on Wednesday - described on FT.com as "a withering day for green shoots" of economic recovery (external website). The report paints a broad picture of a global economy in what it terms "deep recession".

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced at midday today that UK interest rates will once again be held 0.5% (external website), thereby remaining at their lowest level since the Bank of England was established in 1694.

As our current political leadership keep reminding us, we should be trying to invest and hence grow our way out of the recession. This might seem counter-intuitive but no more so that the opposite position, characterised in the 1930s as 'liquidationist' and perhaps thought of these days as 'creative destruction'. (The once-again-popular Keynes made this comment at the time which could be dropped into a more modern context without a lot of modification.)

So assuming that investment is the way forward, how exactly should as UK business go about things? Well, given the UK's non-reliance on so-called productive industries, any investment is going to fall heavily on one area: people.

Chancellor Alistair Darling has now delivered Budget 2009, and the reactions are coming through thick and fast. Following on from our live blog on Budget 2009, we report on the verdicts from the usual suspects. This will be updated over the course of today (Wednesday 22 April 2009) and tomorrow (Thursday 23 April 2009) as more reactions are published.

As Chancellor Alistair Darling stands up to deliver his second Budget statement to the House of Commons, we have already learned this morning that the recession pushed government borrowing to £90 billion in the last financial year (PDF format, 99.6kb), higher than the £78 billion estimate in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report. While the rise in unemployment also revealed this morning was lower than expected, the labour market situation nevertheless provides a stark backdrop to what has been widely tipped as a "Budget for jobs".

The Chancellor expects the economy to start growing again towards end of 2009. Growth forecasts:

•  -3.5% for 2009
• 1.25% in 2010
• 3.5% from 2011
• Around 2. 75% trend rate of growth "in future years"

Inflation forecasts:

• CPI expected to continue to fall sharply, reaching 1% by end of 2009.
• RPI expected to fall to -3% by September 2009, before moving back above zero next year
• Inflation target remains at 2%.

Jobs and training:

• £1.7 billion funding (in addition to the £1.3bn in the pre-Budget) for Jobcentre Plus and the New Deal plus additional support through the flexible new deal.
• From January anyone under 25 who has been unemployed for 12 months will be offered a job or training place.
• Extra investment (£250m this year) for further education places. 

Public finances:

• Public borrowing will be £175bn this year (12.4% of GDP) and 173bn in 2010/11, then £140bn, £118bn, £97bn for next few years.
• Government will make additional efficiency savings of £9 million by 2013/14 (on top of £26.5 government says have already been made since 2004).
• Current spending growth will be 0.7% a year from 2011/12 onwards.

Support for businesses include:

• a doubling of the main capital investment allowance to 40% from 2009/10.
• £500 million support for the building industry to help them borrow to build new homes.
• Help for companies to reclaim tax on profits extended until November 2010.
• New top-up credit insurance scheme.
• "scrappage" scheme to help automotive sector.

Taxes and benefits:

• A 50% income tax rate will come in from April 2010 for those earning £150,000 (up from the 45% rate proposed in Pre-Budget and one year earlier than proposed).
• Personal allowances for those earning over £100,000 removed from April 2010 (proposal had been to restrict).
• Redundancy pay to increase from £350 to £380 a week.
• Child element of tax credit to increase by £20 a week from April 2010.
• Granparents of working age who care for grandchildren will see that work count towards their entitlement to the basic state pension.
• Tax relief on pensions to be cut for those earning more than £150k a year.
• Basic state pension will be increased by at least 2.5% regardless of RPI level.
• Savings limit for pension credit will increase to £10,000 from November 2009.

Other proposals

• Stamp duty holiday on properties sold for less than £175k extended to end of 2009.
• Fuel duty up by 2p in September 2009
• Alcohol and tobacco duties up 2% from midnight
• Treasury to publish proposals on reform of financial regulation.
• Various proposals on climiate change including £450m of investment in green technology.
• Total annual limit on ISA savings increased to £10,200 from this year for over-50s and next year for everyone else.

As the final bets are placed on what the Budget will contain, we gear up to covering the Budget statement live on Employment Intelligence from 12:30pm tomorrow.

The odds that the Chancellor will use the word "sorry" are running at five to one according to William Hill. But the chances that Alistair Darling will have to mention the word "unemployment" are far higher. The labour market figures - released at 9:30am tomorrow by the Office for National Statistics - are expected to show a "significant further deterioration" by the Royal Bank of Scotland, which itself is currently consulting on job losses.

Spring, as the song once put it, is busting out all over. And with it has arrived a chorus of voices to suggest that the UK economy might be on the verge of recovery, with the end of the recession in sight.

Over the next week I'll be covering the run-up to next wednesday's Budget - counting down to the moment when the Chancellor stands up to tackle "a tougher task than any British Chancellor of the past 100 years" according to some.

So what are employers and unions lobbying the Chancellor for?

Chancellor Alastair Darling has admitted that the Pre-Budget Report 2008's projections regarding the severity and duration of the recession were incorrect (on the Sunday Times website).

Retail prices index (RPI) inflation has turned negative (subscription required) for the first time since February 1960, according to latest official figures published today. Today's data show a sixth consecutive monthly fall in RPI, dropping by 0.4 percentage points to stand at -0.4% in March 2009. However, this outcome does not necessarily mean that deflation has arrived.