Over the past month, we have moved on from dire warnings about the recession yet to come and into the realm of closures, redundancies and gloom on the high street.
But while inflation has already dropped back very substantially thanks to falls in the price of oil and basic foodstuffs, pay rises have edged up - helping to close a gap between pay and price rises that has persisted now for more than two years.
The latest unemployment figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the jobless rate rose to 5.8% for the three month period from July to September. This equates to 1.825 million people - up 140,000 on the previous rolling quarter.
Few now doubt that the figure will soon hit 2 million and go on rising into 2009, with the CBI forecasting that unemployment could peak at close to 2.9 million by the end of 2009.
The Bankof England, meanwhile, in its November quarterly inflation report suggests that the economy as a while could shrink by as much as 2% in 2009. Its projections of a sharp drop in Gross Domestic Product in the coming year suggest a long hard recession (see chart right - source Bank of England).
At the same time, inflation has dropped markedly. The Retail Price Index (used by most private sector employers as a benchmark for pay rises) dropped from 5.0% in September to 4.2% in October, while the Consumer Price Index fell from 5.2% to 4.5%.
Once again, the Bank of England and other reputable forecasters believe that inflation will continue to fall. The Bank's central forecast is for a fall to 1% by the end of 2009 - with the possibility that it could even dip into negative figures (see chart right - source Bank of England).
Pay rises, meanwhile, appear to have been playing catch-up, with an increase in the rolling quarterly average for October most likely reflecting employees' and to some extent employers' attempts to compensate for the very high inflation rates of the past few months.
Data collected by CELRE's sister service, Industrial Relations Services (subscription required), and published on XpertHR (subscription required), show the headline measure of basic pay awards rose to 3.8% for the three months to the end of October.
Headline findings from the IRS Pay Databank can be also seen on the XpertHR blog.
The 3.8% figure is also in line with the increase in the National Minimum Wage which took effect on 1 October.
On the political front, the uneasy cross-party consensus which emerged as the government moved to shore up the UK banking system has now come to an end.
In his Autumn Statement, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling massively increased government borrowing for the short term to fund a package of tax cuts, including a reduction of VAT from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months to stimulate the economy.
The Conservative front bench, meanwhile, has abandoned its commitment to match Labour spending pledges on public services, and has been highly critical of temporary tax cuts. However, its approach has been criticised by the CBI employers' organisation.
Bullet points summarising the Chancellor's statement and providing links to the full Pre Budget Report documentation can be found on the XpertHR blog.
Finally, a sign of the times: the TUC has launched a monthly Recession Report.
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