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With the UK economy back in recession, XpertHR's May 2012 economic commentary looks at prospects for recovery and how long the age of austerity might last.

The UK economy is "on the critical list," according to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club.

Recent weeks have brought unwelcome economic news, suggesting that the UK economy could be in need of urgent attention.

The UK economy is in a state of double-dip recession, and concerns are mounting that recent falls in inflation could be coming to an abrupt halt.

Against this backdrop, XpertHR's economic commentary for May 2012 looks at prospects for growth, youth unemployment, public sector cuts, and asks if the age of austerity might be only just beginning.
Michael Carty  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
1-Pine-Forest-(Fallsburg)-2XpertHR's April 2012 economic commentary looks at the risk of double-dip recession, trends in unemployment, and predictions for private sector pay awards.

"It is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods."

This is New York Federal Reserve head William Dudley's assessment of the global economic outlook. Dudley's words are particularly relevant to the UK.

April 2012 could prove a pivotal month for the UK economic recovery.

Despite some positive signals, particularly from falling inflation and gradually rising pay awards, the UK economic situation remains precarious.

We will learn this month if we are in a double-dip recession, or if UK economic growth merely continues to flatline (arguably the best-case scenario in current circumstances).

XpertHR's economic commentary for April 2012 looks at prospects for growth, trends in unemployment and inflation and predictions for private sector pay awards. We also report on the key announcements from Chancellor George Osborne's Budget 2012.
Michael Carty  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Chancellor's Budget on 21 March 2012 needs to deliver growth to the UK economy. He starts by saying that it "rewards work" and backs business.

The key announcements of interest to HR are:

Growth

Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for UK GDP growth in 2012 is 0.8% (and the UK will avoid technical recession in 2012). This is up from 0.7% forecast in the autumn statement in November 2011. Following this GDP growth is forecast at 2% in 2013 (down from 2.1% forecast in the autumn statement); 2.7% in 2014; and 3% in 2015 and 2016.

Unemployment

Unemployment (on the ILO measure) is expected to peak at 8.7% in 2012, falling to 6.3% by the end of the forecast period (2015/16). Claimant count unemployment is expected to peak at 1.67 million in 2012.

Inflation

CPI inflation is expected to fall from an average 2.8% in 2012 to 1.9% in 2013. The Chancellor confirmed the 2% target for CPI inflation.

Pension age

There will be an automatic review of the state pension age - details to be published this summer.

Sunday trading

The Government will relax the Sunday trading laws for eight Sundays only starting 22 July 2012.

Regional pay in the public sector

The Chancellor says that we "will see whether we can make public sector pay more responsive to local rates. London weighting already exists". He has asked the independent pay review bodies to look at it, and will publish the Treasury evidence to these today.

Tax

Will simplify the tax regimes for small firms - will consult on plans for firms with a turnover of up to £77,000 a year.

Pressing forward with operation to integrate processes for income tax and NI - a consultation on this will be published next month.

From 2014, around 20 million taxpayers (those contacted by the HMRC) will receive a Personal Tax Statement detailing what taxes and National Insurance they have paid and how these are being spent - "a tax system that is simple and transparent" says the Chancellor.

Headline rate of corporation tax - currently at 26% and due to fall to 25% from April 2012 - will be a further cut of 1% - to 24% - to take effect immediately. By 2014 will have a 22% rate of corporation tax. "Biggest sustained cut in business tax rates for a generation," says the Chancellor.

Personal tax

Chancellor: My goal is that the lowest paid are lifted out of tax altogether, while the tax paid by the richest increases.

The higher tax rate - 50p per £1 for income over £150,000 - "can only be justified if it raises significant sums of money". Publishing figures from the HMRC today - £16bn of income deliberately shifted into the previous tax year; self assessment receipts are below forecast; and it raised just a third of the £3billion "we were told it would raise". From April 2013 the top rate of tax will therefore be reduced by 5p to 45p.

As previously announced, the personal income tax allowance will increase by £635 to £8,105 from April 2012. From April 2013 this will increase by £1,100 to £9,205.

Employment law

The Government announced that it will relax Sunday trading laws from 22 July 2012 to 9 September 2012 inclusive for the Olympics and Paralympics. It also set out progress regarding its various proposed reforms to employment law, confirming that "protected conversations" are on the way, subject to consultation that will take place in 2012. It is also considering responses to its calls for evidence regarding the current TUPE provisions and the rules regarding collective redundancies, with a view to consulting on any proposed changes in autumn 2012.

The Government plans to respond before the summer recess on the consultation regarding fees for tribunal claims, and confirmed that Mr Justice Underhill's report on the employment tribunal rules of procedure will be delivered in spring 2012.

The Government will also "scrap or improve" 84% of health and safety legislation, which includes the removal in 2012 of "strict liability" provisions for employers where they have done everything that is reasonable practicable and foreseeable to protect their employees. It will also, by October 2013, amend the Reporting of Injuries, Diseases and Dangerous Occurrences Regulations 1995 (SI 1995/3163) and its associated guidance to provide clarity for businesses on how to comply with it.

The full Budget report is available on the HM Treasury website. 

Sheila Attwood  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The basket of goods, which is used to calculate the UK's rate of inflation, has had its annual overhaul - with tablet computers and teenage fiction going in the basket, while developing colour film has come out.

Updated annually by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the CPI and RPI Basket of Goods and Services (external website) contains over 700 items for which the prices are collected every month. Tracking these prices ensures that CPI and RPI are up-to-date and representative of consumer spending patterns. Movements in the CPI and RPI represent the changing cost of the representative shopping basket.

Items going into the basket include baby wipes to represent 'cleansers on the go'; bundled communication packages comprising telephone services, internet access and television subscriptions; tablet computers (over the years more computer equipment has been added including desktop personal computers and laptops); and teenage fiction now warrants its own category as there has been an increase in spend in this area.

Jo Doonar  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
So just how bad are things? As bad as the 1980s? The 1930s perhaps? History Today magazine reckons that the best parallel for our current economic woes is the long depression that began in 1873 with a finance house failure very similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

And how long did that slump last? In the US, just five or six years, but for the UK, it went on until 1896, when the average person gradually began to see their standard of living rising again.  So then, that's 2008 plus 23 years. Start planning now for recovery in 2031.
Mark Crail  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
Zig-Zags - geograph.org.uk - 1161095XpertHR's March 2012 economic commentary assesses the risk of double-dip recession, and looks at what we might expect from Chancellor George Osborne's Budget 2012 speech.

The key question facing the UK economy right now is whether a double-dip recession can be avoided.

This question will be on the minds of many UK employers and of Chancellor George Osborne as he gears up for this month's Budget 2012 speech.

With economic growth stuck in reverse and unemployment continuing to rise, prospects for a full recovery are anything but certain.

Indeed, the outlook for the ability of the UK to maintain its AAA credit rating was changed from "stable" to "negative" during February 2012 by credit ratings agency Moody's. Moody's said this decision was primarily driven by "the weaker macroeconomic environment, which will challenge the Government's efforts to place its debt burden on a downward trajectory over the coming years."

But this month also brings some positive news: growth in the first quarter of 2012 could yet be positive; pay awards are showing some upward momentum; and inflation is falling fast.

XpertHR's economic commentary for March 2012 assesses prospects for economic recovery, reports on latest trends in economic indicators of relevance to HR professionals and reward practitioners (such as pay awards, inflation and unemployment), considers trends in graduate recruitment, and looks ahead to what might be expected from Osborne's Budget 2012 speech.
Michael Carty  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
Juicy Salif - 78365XpertHR's February 2012 economic commentary examines current threats to UK economic recovery, including the ongoing income squeeze.

One month into 2012, and the UK economy finds itself back in negative territory.

Economic uncertainty is widespread, which in turn makes recovery ever more difficult.

"Uncertainty is [a] significant risk," according to a survey of CFOs by Deloitte. It finds that "56% of CFOs rate the level of uncertainty facing their business as being 'high' or 'very high.' As one respondent put it, 'Everyone is waiting for something very bad to happen.'" Respondents to the Deloitte survey also see a 54% chance of a double-dip recession for the UK.

The Guardian's Larry Elliott identifies a "triple whammy" of factors making UK economic recovery problematic: "falling real incomes, austerity and the crisis in the eurozone"

XpertHR's economic commentary for February 2012 looks in detail at the impact of each of these factors, and rounds up the latest data on key economic indicators of relevance to HR professionals and reward practitioners.
Michael Carty  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)
2012Graffiti.JPGXpertHR's January 2012 economic commentary looks ahead to prospects for the coming year.

As 2012 gets underway, the UK economic outlook is extremely uncertain.

The UK is now well into the age of austerity. Growth is ongoing but weak, with concerns that we could lapse back into recession. Unemployment is on the rise, while UK households are finding themselves ever more stretched as pay awards approach their second anniversary of consistently coming in below inflation.

It also remains to be seen what impact David Cameron's decision to exempt the UK from a deal to tackle the eurozone debt crisis will have on longer-term prospects for the UK economy.

Here, we present a detailed overview of UK economic prospects for the coming year. In a separate article, we present a round-up of economic predictions for 2012 from a number of leading UK HR bloggers.
Michael Carty  | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
HRIntelligentsia.jpgWe canvass the views of a number of leading UK HR bloggers and commentators on economic prospects for 2012.

Kevin J Ball, Mervyn Dinnen, Neil Morrison and Steven Toft have their say.


As a companion piece to XpertHR's January 2012 economic commentary article, I'm delighted to be able to present a round-up of economic predictions for the coming year from four leading UK HR bloggers:
  • Kevin J Ball
  • Mervyn Dinnen
  • Neil Morrison
  • Steven Toft
I am extremely grateful to each of these gentlemen for taking the time to contribute their personal expectations for the UK economy in 2012 and beyond. You can find out more about each contributor from the short introductory paragraph preceding their own words.

Michael Carty  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Bank of England has released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on the 7 and 8 December 2011 (PDF format, 54KB) - they state there has been little change to the balance of risks to UK activity and inflation over the past month. 

Therefore, as expected, the bank rate remained at 0.5% and there was no change to the asset purchase programme, which commenced in October.

Although CPI inflation remains above target, the MPC once again said there was "little sign" that this has begun to generate rapid wage growth.

Jo Doonar  | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

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