Pay awards

Summary

Headline basic pay award (XpertHR)

  • Median pay settlement for the three months ending 31 July 2015: 2.0% (whole economy)

Next release date: 25 September 2015.

Engineering and manufacturing (EEF)

  • Average pay settlement for the three months ending 31 July 2015: 1.9% (manufacturing)

Next release date: 25 September 2015.

Manufacturing and services (LRD)

  • Median pay award for the three months ending 31 July 2015: 2.5% (manufacturing); 2.2% (services)

Next release date: 25 September 2015.

XpertHR pay award forecasts

  • Median private-sector pay award for the 12 months ending 28 February 2016: 2.0%

XpertHR headline pay award

The XpertHR measure of pay awards - the midpoint in the range of basic pay deals - stands at 2.0% in the three months to the end of July 2015, the same as the figure for the three months to the end of June 2015, according to the latest provisional analysis. The interquartile range stands between 1.6% and 2.5%.

Chart 1: XpertHR pay review pattern - whole economy, July 2014 to July 2015

Chart showing XpertHR pay review pattern for whole economy

See note below.

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Engineering and manufacturing (EEF)

Pay awards in engineering and manufacturing companies averaged 1.9% in the three months to 31 July 2015, according to EEF, the manufacturers' organisation. This is the same as the figure for the three months to June.

Source: EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, August 2015.

Manufacturing and services (LRD)

Latest figures from the Labour Research Department (LRD) reveal that the median pay settlement level recorded on the LRD PayLine database is 2.3% for the three months to 31 July 2015, the same as the figure for the previous rolling quarter. By industry sector, the median settlement levels for the manufacturing sector and for the services sector have both moved from 2.3% (for the previous rolling quarter). The median for the manufacturing sector is now 2.5% while for the services sector it is 2.2%.

Source: LRD PayLine database.

Table 1: Settlement indicators

Whole economy Manufacturing Services
Three months ending: MAY 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 2.0% -
LRD 2.3% 2.4% 2.2%
Three months ending: JUNE 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 1.9% -
LRD 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Three months ending: JULY 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 1.9% -
LRD 2.3% 2.5% 2.2%
Source: EEF (averages), XpertHR (medians), LRD (medians).

Note on the chart

The chart shows the median, upper and lower quartile settlements for the whole economy over three-month rolling periods. It is based on information from around 1,400 manufacturing and services pay reviews in the public and private sectors.

  • The median increase is the midpoint in the total spread - that is, the percentage at which half the pay reviews are at the same or a higher value and half are at the same or a lower value.
  • The bottom 25% of pay reviews fall at or below the lower quartile and the top 25% at or above the upper quartile. Thus, half of pay reviews provide for rises between the upper and lower quartiles.

Table 2: Pay award forecasts, August 2015

Source Time period Measure Forecast Updated
XpertHR pay forecasts survey 12 months to 28 February 2016 Median pay award (private sector only) 2.0% Twice yearly
CIPD Labour Market Outlook 12 months to June 2016 Median basic pay increase (excluding bonuses) 2.0% Quarterly
Sources: XpertHR pay prospects survey, March 2015; Labour Market Outlook, CIPD, Summer 2015.