Pay awards

Summary

Headline basic pay award (XpertHR)

  • Median pay settlement for the three months ending 31 December 2015: 2.0% (whole economy)

Next release date: 18 February 2016.

Engineering and manufacturing (EEF)

  • Average pay settlement for the three months ending 31 December 2015: 1.8% (manufacturing)

Next release date: 18 February 2016.

Manufacturing and services (LRD)

  • Median pay award for the three months ending 31 December 2015: 2.7% (manufacturing); 2.5% (services)

Next release date: 18 February 2016.

XpertHR pay award forecasts

  • Median private-sector pay award for the 12 months ending 31 August 2016: 2.0%

XpertHR headline pay award

The XpertHR measure of pay awards - the midpoint in the range of basic pay deals - stands at 2.0% in the three months to the end of December 2015, the same as the figure for the three months to the end of November 2015, according to the latest provisional analysis. The interquartile range stands between 1.5% and 3%.

Chart 1: XpertHR pay review pattern - whole economy, December 2014 to December 2015

Chart showing XpertHR pay review pattern for whole economy

See note below.

Download in Excel

Engineering and manufacturing (EEF)

Pay awards in engineering and manufacturing companies averaged 1.8% in the three months to 31 December 2015, according to EEF, the manufacturers' organisation. The figure recorded for the three months to 30 November was 2.2%.

Source: EEF, the manufacturers' organisation, December 2015.

Manufacturing and services (LRD)

Latest figures from the Labour Research Department (LRD) reveal that the median pay settlement level recorded on the LRD PayLine database is 2.5% for the three months to 31 December 2015, the same as the 2.5% figure for the previous rolling quarter. By industry sector, the median settlement level for the manufacturing sector is 2.7% and the median for the services sector is 2.5%. Both levels have increased on the previous quarter.

Source: LRD PayLine database.

Table 1: Settlement indicators

Whole economy Manufacturing Services
Three months ending: OCTOBER 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 2.1% -
LRD 2.4% 2.5% 2.3%
Three months ending: NOVEMBER 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 2.2% -
LRD 2.5% 2.6% 2.3%
Three months ending: DECEMBER 2015
XpertHR 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
EEF - 1.8% -
LRD 2.5% 2.7% 2.5%
Source: EEF (averages), XpertHR (medians), LRD (medians).

Note on the chart

The chart shows the median, upper and lower quartile settlements for the whole economy over three-month rolling periods. It is based on information from around 1,400 manufacturing and services pay reviews in the public and private sectors.

  • The median increase is the midpoint in the total spread - that is, the percentage at which half the pay reviews are at the same or a higher value and half are at the same or a lower value.
  • The bottom 25% of pay reviews fall at or below the lower quartile and the top 25% at or above the upper quartile. Thus, half of pay reviews provide for rises between the upper and lower quartiles.

Table 2: Pay award forecasts, January 2016

Source Time period Measure Forecast Updated
XpertHR pay forecasts survey 12 months to 31 August 2016 Median pay award (private sector only) 2.0% Twice yearly
CIPD Labour Market Outlook 12 months to September 2016 Median basic pay increase (excluding bonuses) 2.0% Quarterly
Sources: XpertHR pay forecasts survey, October 2015; Labour Market Outlook, CIPD, Autumn 2015.